Football · Rwanda National League · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: APR FC vs SC Kiyovu

Team pages: APR FC · SC Kiyovu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.68Total

APR FC1.2

SC Kiyovu0.48

1X2

55% 30% 16%

APR FC Draw SC Kiyovu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

APR FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWWWW

SC Kiyovu 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDLLWD

Head-to-head

APR FC 3–3–0 SC Kiyovu (6 last)

APR FC0-0SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu0-2APR FC
APR FC1-1SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu0-0APR FC
SC Kiyovu1-2APR FC
APR FC3-0SC Kiyovu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APR FC 1553 · SC Kiyovu 1518

	APR FC	Draw	SC Kiyovu
Our model	53%	33%	14%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 1.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours APR FC: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APR FC	SC Kiyovu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.40

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +4’	1.60	3.40	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · APR FC 3–3–0 SC Kiyovu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Rwanda Cup	APR FC	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Kiyovu
17/02/26 Rwanda Cup	SC Kiyovu	0-2 HT 0-0	APR FC
14/02/26 Rwanda National League	APR FC	1-1 HT 0-0	SC Kiyovu
25/10/25 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	0-0 HT 0-0	APR FC
08/02/25 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	1-2 HT 1-2	APR FC
11/12/24 Rwanda National League	APR FC	3-0 HT 2-0	SC Kiyovu

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
2	Gorilla FC	5	2	2	1	2	1	8
3	Marines FC	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
4	Amagaju	5	2	1	2	7	3	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
8	Sunrise FC	5	1	3	1	3	6	6
9	Gasogi Utd	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
10	Police FC	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
13	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
15	Musanze FC	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APR FC	SC Kiyovu
Marines FC	4-2 W	0-0 D
Al Merrikh	2-1 W	1-0 W
Rayon Sports FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
AS Muhanga	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: APR FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APR FC

WLWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-2	4-2	6	3	W
31/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
27/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
17/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	2-0	3-0	4	0	W
10/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
02/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
05/04	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

SC Kiyovu

DWWDDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
15/09	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
29/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
24/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APR FC vs SC Kiyovu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APR FC win (55%). Probabilities: APR FC 55%, draw 30%, SC Kiyovu 16%.

How many goals are expected in APR FC vs SC Kiyovu?

The model expects 1.68 goals (APR FC 1.2 · SC Kiyovu 0.48), with a 61% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in APR FC vs SC Kiyovu?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.