Football · Rwanda National League · 23/10, 16:00

Prediction: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Etincelles

Team pages: Al Hilal Omdurman · Etincelles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Al Hilal Omdurman2.02

Etincelles0.48

1X2

74% 19% 8%

Al Hilal Omdurman Draw Etincelles

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Hilal Omdurman 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDLW

Etincelles 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWWLL

Head-to-head

Al Hilal Omdurman 1–1 Etincelles (2 last)

Etincelles2-1Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman2-0Etincelles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Hilal Omdurman 1631 · Etincelles 1495

	Al Hilal Omdurman	Draw	Etincelles
Our model	73%	20%	7%
Market	74%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Hilal Omdurman (rating 1631 vs 1495).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Hilal Omdurman	Etincelles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/44/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +7’	1.22	5.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Hilal Omdurman 1–0–1 Etincelles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	2-1 HT 0-0	Al Hilal Omdurman
08/01/26 Rwanda National League	Al Hilal Omdurman	2-0 HT 1-0	Etincelles

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
2	Gorilla FC	5	2	2	1	2	1	8
3	Marines FC	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
4	Amagaju	5	2	1	2	7	3	7
5	Mukura	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
7	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
8	Sunrise FC	5	1	3	1	3	6	6
9	Gasogi Utd	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
10	Police FC	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
13	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
15	Musanze FC	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Hilal Omdurman	Etincelles
Gasogi Utd	2-1 W	2-2 D
Musanze FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Hilal Omdurman (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Hilal Omdurman

WWWWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
30/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
22/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
13/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
13/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
07/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	2	4	W
03/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
25/04	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W

Etincelles

DDWWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
10/10	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
30/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
16/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
10/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
02/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Hilal Omdurman vs Etincelles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Hilal Omdurman win (74%). Probabilities: Al Hilal Omdurman 74%, draw 19%, Etincelles 8%.

How many goals are expected in Al Hilal Omdurman vs Etincelles?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Al Hilal Omdurman 2.02 · Etincelles 0.48), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Hilal Omdurman vs Etincelles?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.