Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Moreirense vs Benfica

Team pages: Moreirense · Benfica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Moreirense0.7

Benfica2.7

1X2

6% 13% 81%

Moreirense Draw Benfica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Moreirense 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLDDL

Benfica 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Moreirense 0–2–4 Benfica (6 last)

Benfica4-1Moreirense
Moreirense0-4Benfica
Benfica3-2Moreirense
Moreirense1-1Benfica
Benfica3-0Moreirense
Moreirense0-0Benfica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreirense 1448 · Benfica 1621

	Moreirense	Draw	Benfica
Our model	7%	15%	79%
Market	6%	12%	82%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1448 vs 1621).
H2H favours Benfica: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreirense	Benfica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	4.9 / 9.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

117.00

X7.50

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.85

2 (-2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +15’	17.00	7.50	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreirense 0–2–4 Benfica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	4-1 HT 2-1	Moreirense
14/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	0-4 HT 0-1	Benfica
08/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	3-2 HT 3-1	Moreirense
30/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-1 HT 0-0	Benfica
14/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	3-0 HT 2-0	Moreirense
03/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	0-0 HT 0-0	Benfica

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreirense	Benfica
Arouca	0-4 L	2-1 W
Braga	2-2 D	2-2 D
Estoril	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Benfica (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moreirense

LLDWLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
02/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	3-2	1	8	W
25/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	2	4	L
20/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
10/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	0	11	D
04/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/03	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Benfica

WWDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	7-0	3	3	W
09/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	10	6	D
16/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	9	5	W
11/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	8	5	D
25/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	9	4	W
19/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
12/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	15	6	W
06/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	12	1	D
21/03	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
14/03	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	15	12	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreirense vs Benfica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Benfica win (81%). Probabilities: Moreirense 6%, draw 13%, Benfica 81%.

How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Benfica?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Moreirense 0.7 · Benfica 2.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.