Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Estrela vs Braga

Team pages: Estrela · Braga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Estrela0.98

Braga1.84

1X2

19% 25% 56%

Estrela Draw Braga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDDD

Braga 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLDDDD

Head-to-head

Estrela 0–3–3 Braga (6 last)

Braga2-2Estrela
Estrela3-3Braga
Estrela0-1Braga
Braga1-1Estrela
Braga3-0Estrela
Estrela2-4Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela 1477 · Braga 1586

	Estrela	Draw	Braga
Our model	19%	25%	56%
Market	19%	25%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1477 vs 1586).
H2H favours Braga: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrela	Braga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.70

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +3’	5.00	3.70	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 0–3–3 Braga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-2 HT 1-1	Estrela
03/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	3-3 HT 1-1	Braga
19/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-1 HT 0-0	Braga
11/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	1-1 HT 0-0	Estrela
02/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	3-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
28/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-4 HT 0-1	Braga

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrela	Braga
Famalicao	0-0 D	2-2 D
Moreirense	2-3 L	2-2 D
FC Porto	1-2 L	1-2 L
Arouca	0-1 L	1-0 W
Casa Pia	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Braga (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela

WLLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L
26/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	0	6	L
19/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
11/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
20/03	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	6	5	W

Braga

LWWDWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
23/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
12/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
22/03	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Braga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (56%). Probabilities: Estrela 19%, draw 25%, Braga 56%.

How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Braga?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Estrela 0.98 · Braga 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Braga?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.