Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: CF Calamocha vs Reus FC Reddis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

CF Calamocha0.82

Reus FC Reddis1.41

1X2

22% 27% 51%

CF Calamocha Draw Reus FC Reddis

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Calamocha 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Reus FC Reddis 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Calamocha 1407 · Reus FC Reddis 1491

	CF Calamocha	Draw	Reus FC Reddis
Our model	21%	30%	49%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reus FC Reddis (rating 1407 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 13.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Calamocha	Reus FC Reddis
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.8	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.3 / 0.5	6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +9’	3.90	3.50	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona B	10	8	1	1	20	5	25
2	Terrassa	10	6	3	1	12	5	21
3	Espanyol B	9	6	2	1	22	8	20
4	Girona B	10	6	1	3	21	12	19
5	UE Olot	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Osasuna B	10	5	2	3	12	7	17
7	CD Ebro	10	5	2	3	18	12	17
8	CE Manresa	10	4	2	4	14	11	14
9	Reus FC Reddis	10	4	2	4	10	12	14
10	Utebo	10	2	6	2	10	9	12
11	Pena Sport	10	3	3	4	13	15	12
12	UD Logrones B	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
13	Tudelano	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
14	UD Barbastro	10	1	6	3	10	12	9
15	SD Logrones	10	1	5	4	8	15	8
16	Arnedo	10	1	3	6	9	22	6
17	Naxara	9	1	3	5	5	15	6
18	CF Calamocha	10	1	2	7	5	19	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Calamocha	Reus FC Reddis
Pena Sport	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Ebro	0-2 L	0-2 L
Osasuna B	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tudelano	0-3 L	3-1 W
UD Logrones B	3-2 W	1-0 W
Espanyol B	0-5 L	1-1 D
Terrassa	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Reus FC Reddis (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Calamocha

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SD Logrones Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
31/10	Girona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	5	10	L
24/10	Arnedo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Pena Sport Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	10	D
10/10	CD Ebro Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	1	8	L
04/10	Osasuna B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
27/09	Tudelano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
20/09	UD Logrones B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-2	2	8	W
13/09	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-3	0-5	1	3	L
06/09	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Reus FC Reddis

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD Logrones B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
01/11	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-2	11	7	L
24/10	Pena Sport Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
18/10	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	4	12	D
11/10	Tudelano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	CE Manresa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-4	8	9	L
27/09	Utebo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
20/09	Naxara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	CD Ebro Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Osasuna B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Calamocha vs Reus FC Reddis?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Reus FC Reddis win (51%). Probabilities: CF Calamocha 22%, draw 27%, Reus FC Reddis 51%.

How many goals are expected in CF Calamocha vs Reus FC Reddis?

The model expects 2.23 goals (CF Calamocha 0.82 · Reus FC Reddis 1.41), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Calamocha vs Reus FC Reddis?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.