Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 16:15

Prediction: Atletico Tordesillas vs CD Atletico Paso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Atletico Tordesillas1.65

CD Atletico Paso1.25

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Atletico Tordesillas Draw CD Atletico Paso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Tordesillas 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDWDLD

CD Atletico Paso 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLDWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Tordesillas 1480 · CD Atletico Paso 1490

	Atletico Tordesillas	Draw	CD Atletico Paso
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Tordesillas	CD Atletico Paso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +4’	2.00	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Numancia	10	5	4	1	16	5	19
2	Salamanca CF UDS	10	6	1	3	16	11	19
3	UD San Sebastian Reyes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Conquense	9	5	3	1	20	11	18
5	Atletico Madrid C	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Valladolid Promesas	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
7	Navalcarnero	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
8	CF Talavera	9	4	3	2	11	8	15
9	CD Guadalajara	10	3	4	3	20	20	13
10	Albacete B	10	3	3	4	13	24	12
11	Real Madrid C	10	2	5	3	5	6	11
12	Atletico Tordesillas	10	2	4	4	16	16	10
13	Gimnastica Segoviana	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
13	RSD Alcala	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
15	CD Atletico Paso	10	2	4	4	11	13	10
16	Getafe B	10	1	5	4	13	17	8
17	Real Avila	10	2	1	7	8	18	7
18	Calvo Sotelo	10	1	3	6	6	20	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Tordesillas	CD Atletico Paso
Atletico Madrid C	3-3 D	0-1 L
Numancia	1-2 L	0-2 L
Real Madrid C	0-0 D	1-0 W
Calvo Sotelo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Navalcarnero	2-2 D	1-3 L
Albacete B	3-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Tordesillas

LLDLWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-2	3-3	10	5	D
01/11	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
24/10	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
18/10	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
11/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
04/10	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
27/09	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
20/09	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	3-4	0	4	L
06/09	UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	1-3	0	4	L

CD Atletico Paso

LDLDWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
24/10	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
18/10	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
03/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
19/09	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
06/09	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Tordesillas vs CD Atletico Paso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Tordesillas win (45%). Probabilities: Atletico Tordesillas 45%, draw 27%, CD Atletico Paso 28%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Tordesillas vs CD Atletico Paso?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Atletico Tordesillas 1.65 · CD Atletico Paso 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Tordesillas vs CD Atletico Paso?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.