Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 05/11, 12:00

Prediction: Zaqatala vs Moik Baku

Team pages: Zaqatala · Moik Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Zaqatala0.95

Moik Baku2.63

1X2

10% 18% 72%

Zaqatala Draw Moik Baku

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaqatala 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLLLL

Moik Baku 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Zaqatala 2–1–3 Moik Baku (6 last)

Moik Baku2-1Zaqatala
Zaqatala1-3Moik Baku
Moik Baku0-1Zaqatala
Zaqatala1-0Moik Baku
Moik Baku0-0Zaqatala
Moik Baku3-1Zaqatala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaqatala 1407 · Moik Baku 1531

	Zaqatala	Draw	Moik Baku
Our model	11%	17%	73%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moik Baku (rating 1407 vs 1531).
H2H favours Moik Baku: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaqatala	Moik Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.5	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.1	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:59 +5’	9.00	5.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaqatala 2–1–3 Moik Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	2-1 HT 2-1	Zaqatala
17/12/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Zaqatala	1-3 HT 0-1	Moik Baku
25/09/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	0-1 HT 0-1	Zaqatala
02/05/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Zaqatala	1-0 HT 0-0	Moik Baku
28/02/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	0-0 HT 0-0	Zaqatala
27/11/24 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	3-1 HT 1-1	Zaqatala

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ganjabasar FK	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	FK Sahdag Qusar	6	5	0	1	14	2	15
3	Moik Baku	6	4	1	1	12	4	13
4	Sabail FC	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
5	FK Karvan	6	3	1	2	10	7	10
6	Simal FK	6	2	2	2	13	11	8
7	Khankendi FK	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
8	Energetik Mingechevir	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
9	Zaqatala	6	1	1	4	6	21	4
10	Baku Sporting FC	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaqatala	Moik Baku
FK Sahdag Qusar	0-6 L	0-1 L
FK Karvan	0-3 L	3-1 W
Baku Sporting FC	3-0 W	3-1 W
Energetik Mingechevir	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Moik Baku (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaqatala

LLLWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Ganjabasar FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	0-7	2	4	L
15/10	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
07/10	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	0-6	2	0	L
16/09	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	0-3	0	2	L
10/09	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	3-0	1	7	W
04/09	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/05	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	2-1	1	8	W
15/05	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
06/05	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/04	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-2	1-7	4	6	L

Moik Baku

LDLWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
16/10	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	2-1	3-1	6	6	W
09/10	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/09	Khankendi FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
11/09	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
03/09	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
21/05	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
15/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/04	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaqatala vs Moik Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moik Baku win (72%). Probabilities: Zaqatala 10%, draw 18%, Moik Baku 72%.

How many goals are expected in Zaqatala vs Moik Baku?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Zaqatala 0.95 · Moik Baku 2.63), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaqatala vs Moik Baku?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.