Football · Algeria Division 2 · 04/09, 14:00

Prediction: USM El Harrach vs ASM Oran

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

USM El Harrach1.38

ASM Oran0.6

1X2

56% 29% 16%

USM El Harrach Draw ASM Oran

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

USM El Harrach 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWDWL

ASM Oran 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

USM El Harrach 1–4–1 ASM Oran (6 last)

USM El Harrach1-2ASM Oran
ASM Oran0-1USM El Harrach
USM El Harrach1-1ASM Oran
ASM Oran0-0USM El Harrach
USM El Harrach0-0ASM Oran
USM El Harrach0-0ASM Oran

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USM El Harrach 1527 · ASM Oran 1553

	USM El Harrach	Draw	ASM Oran
Our model	55%	30%	15%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USM El Harrach	ASM Oran
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.25

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +14’	1.60	3.25	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:34	1.65	3.04	5.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USM El Harrach 1–4–1 ASM Oran

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	1-2 HT 0-0	ASM Oran
22/11/25 Algeria Division 2	ASM Oran	0-1 HT 0-1	USM El Harrach
05/02/22 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	1-1 HT 1-0	ASM Oran
26/10/21 Algeria Division 2	ASM Oran	0-0 HT 0-0	USM El Harrach
12/10/19 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	0-0 HT 0-0	ASM Oran
08/02/19 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	0-0 HT 0-0	ASM Oran

Standings · Algeria Division 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Center-West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ASM Oran	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ES Mostaganem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ESM Kolea	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GC Mascara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Irb Sidi M Hamed Benali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JRB Taghit	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JSM Tiaret	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MC El Bayadh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MC Saida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NA Hussein Dey	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RC Arba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RC Kouba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	USM Blida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	USM El Harrach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WA Mostaganem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WA Tlemcen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USM El Harrach	ASM Oran
WA Mostaganem	3-0 W	0-1 L
GC Mascara	1-1 D	3-2 W
JS Tixeraine	2-0 W	1-0 W
RC Arba	0-2 L	1-0 W
JSM Tiaret	1-0 W	1-0 W
WA Tlemcen	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ASM Oran (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USM El Harrach

WDWLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	US Chaouia Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
08/05	WA Mostaganem Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
01/05	GC Mascara Algeria Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
25/04	ESM Kolea Algeria Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
18/04	JS Tixeraine Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
10/04	ASM Oran Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
04/04	RC Arba Algeria Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	JSM Tiaret Algeria Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/03	WA Tlemcen Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
07/03	NA Hussein Dey Algeria Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W

ASM Oran

WWWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/05	CRB Adrar Algeria Division 2	3-0	4-1	3	1	W
01/05	RC Kouba Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
25/04	WA Mostaganem Algeria Division 2	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
18/04	MC Saida Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/04	USM El Harrach Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-1	0	1	W
03/04	GC Mascara Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-2	2	9	W
27/03	WA Tlemcen Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
14/03	JS Tixeraine Algeria Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/03	JSM Tiaret Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
28/02	RC Arba Algeria Division 2	1-0	1-0	0	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USM El Harrach vs ASM Oran?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USM El Harrach win (56%). Probabilities: USM El Harrach 56%, draw 29%, ASM Oran 16%.

How many goals are expected in USM El Harrach vs ASM Oran?

The model expects 1.99 goals (USM El Harrach 1.38 · ASM Oran 0.6), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in USM El Harrach vs ASM Oran?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.