Football · Spain Tercera Group 1 · 14/11, 18:30

Prediction: Portonovo vs Celtiga

Team pages: Celtiga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Portonovo1.26

Celtiga1

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Portonovo Draw Celtiga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Portonovo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWDLDW

Celtiga 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portonovo 1516 · Celtiga 1485

	Portonovo	Draw	Celtiga
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portonovo	Celtiga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +8’	2.15	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Boiro	10	7	2	1	16	6	23
2	SD Sarriana	10	5	3	2	18	13	18
3	Silva SD	10	5	2	3	14	13	17
4	CD Barco	10	4	4	2	14	9	16
5	Atletico Arteixo	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
6	Portonovo	10	4	3	3	14	11	15
7	CD Estradense	10	4	3	3	16	16	15
8	CD Lalin	10	4	3	3	9	10	15
9	Racing Club Villalbes	10	3	5	2	12	11	14
10	Pontevedra B	10	4	1	5	14	12	13
11	Antela FC	10	3	4	3	8	9	13
12	Alondras	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
13	Somozas	10	2	5	3	9	10	11
14	Celtiga	10	2	5	3	9	11	11
15	CD Arenteiro	10	3	1	6	12	16	10
16	Montaneros	10	3	0	7	13	22	9
17	Gran Pena	10	2	2	6	11	16	8
18	Viveiro CF	10	2	2	6	6	12	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portonovo	Celtiga
Silva SD	4-2 W	1-1 D
CD Barco	1-2 L	1-1 D
CD Arenteiro	2-1 W	0-2 L
Somozas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Portonovo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portonovo

DWLWLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
01/11	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	SD Sarriana Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	1-2	7	8	L
18/10	Antela FC Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
10/10	Pontevedra B Spain Tercera Group 1	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	Lalin Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Silva SD Spain Tercera Group 1	–	4-2	–	–	W
20/09	CD Barco Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
13/09	CD Arenteiro Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	Somozas Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Celtiga

DLLWDDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	CD Barco Spain Tercera Group 1	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	CD Arenteiro Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/10	Somozas Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/10	Gran Pena Spain Tercera Group 1	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
11/10	Alondras Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/10	Viveiro CF Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Estradense Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/09	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	CD Boiro Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
06/09	Silva SD Spain Tercera Group 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portonovo vs Celtiga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portonovo win (41%). Probabilities: Portonovo 41%, draw 30%, Celtiga 29%.

How many goals are expected in Portonovo vs Celtiga?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Portonovo 1.26 · Celtiga 1), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Portonovo vs Celtiga?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.