Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: FC Obermais vs AC Mestre

Team pages: FC Obermais · AC Mestre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

FC Obermais1.06

AC Mestre1.5

1X2

26% 28% 46%

FC Obermais Draw AC Mestre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Obermais 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWDLWDL

AC Mestre 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWDDW

Head-to-head

FC Obermais 0–2 AC Mestre (2 last)

AC Mestre3-1FC Obermais
FC Obermais0-1AC Mestre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Obermais 1479 · AC Mestre 1537

	FC Obermais	Draw	AC Mestre
Our model	26%	28%	46%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Mestre (rating 1479 vs 1537).
H2H favours AC Mestre: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Obermais	AC Mestre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	1.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +28’	3.50	3.25	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Obermais 0–0–2 AC Mestre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Italy Serie D	AC Mestre	3-1 HT 3-1	FC Obermais
14/09/25 Italy Serie D	FC Obermais	0-1	AC Mestre

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Obermais

DDDDWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FCD Conegliano Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Lavarian Mortean Esperia Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
13/09	Este Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
06/09	Cjarlins Muzane Italy Serie D	1-4	2-5	3	2	L
17/05	AC Vigasio Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/05	ASD San Luigi Calcio Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	ASD San Luigi Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	FCD Conegliano Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	Unione La Rocca Altavilla Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	Cjarlins Muzane Italy Serie D	2-0	2-2	5	5	D

AC Mestre

WLWDLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Unione La Rocca Altavilla Italy Serie D	1-2	3-2	10	8	W
16/09	Bassano Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Luparense FC Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/05	Treviso Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Unione La Rocca Altavilla Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/04	Legnago Salus Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Luparense FC Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/03	Campodarsego Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
15/03	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Obermais vs AC Mestre?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Mestre win (46%). Probabilities: FC Obermais 26%, draw 28%, AC Mestre 46%.

How many goals are expected in FC Obermais vs AC Mestre?

The model expects 2.57 goals (FC Obermais 1.06 · AC Mestre 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Obermais vs AC Mestre?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.