Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Legnago Salus vs Triestina

Team pages: Legnago Salus · Triestina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Legnago Salus1.28

Triestina1.08

1X2

40% 29% 30%

Legnago Salus Draw Triestina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Legnago Salus 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWDDD

Triestina 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Legnago Salus 1–1–4 Triestina (6 last)

Triestina2-2Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus1-3Triestina
Triestina2-0Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus0-2Triestina
Triestina4-1Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus3-0Triestina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Legnago Salus 1531 · Triestina 1488

	Legnago Salus	Draw	Triestina
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Legnago Salus (rating 1531 vs 1488).
H2H favours Triestina: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Legnago Salus	Triestina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.60 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:53 +14’	2.40	3.20	2.60
05:16	2.25▼	3.20	2.80▲
16:03 +8’	2.20▼	3.20	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Legnago Salus 1–1–4 Triestina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Triestina	2-2 HT 0-1	Legnago Salus
24/10/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Legnago Salus	1-3 HT 0-2	Triestina
26/03/22 Italy Serie C Group A	Triestina	2-0 HT 1-0	Legnago Salus
22/11/21 Italy Serie C Group A	Legnago Salus	0-2 HT 0-1	Triestina
07/02/21 Italy Serie C Group B	Triestina	4-1 HT 1-0	Legnago Salus
11/10/20 Italy Serie C Group B	Legnago Salus	3-0 HT 1-0	Triestina

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Legnago Salus	Triestina
AC Mestre	1-1 D	0-2 L
FCD Conegliano	1-1 D	1-0 W
ASD Lavarian Mortean Esperia	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Obermais	3-1 W	2-0 W
Cjarlins Muzane	4-0 W	0-3 L
Bassano	0-2 L	1-1 D
Campodarsego	1-0 W	1-2 L
Calvi Noale	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Legnago Salus (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Legnago Salus

DWLWLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Mestre Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
01/11	FCD Conegliano Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	ASD Lavarian Mortean Esperia Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	FC Obermais Italy Serie D	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
11/10	Cjarlins Muzane Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
04/10	Bassano Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
27/09	Campodarsego Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
20/09	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Unione La Rocca Altavilla Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
12/09	Sandona 1922 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Triestina

DLDLWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Calcio Schio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
01/11	Este Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/10	AC Mestre Italy Serie D	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
18/10	FCD Conegliano Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	ASD Lavarian Mortean Esperia Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/10	FC Obermais Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
27/09	Cjarlins Muzane Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
20/09	Bassano Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
16/09	Campodarsego Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Calvi Noale Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Legnago Salus vs Triestina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Legnago Salus win (40%). Probabilities: Legnago Salus 40%, draw 29%, Triestina 30%.

How many goals are expected in Legnago Salus vs Triestina?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Legnago Salus 1.28 · Triestina 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Legnago Salus vs Triestina?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.