Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 18:00
Prediction: Fidelis Andria vs FBC Gravina
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Fidelis Andria1.35
FBC Gravina1.01
1X2
Fidelis Andria
Draw
FBC Gravina
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Fidelis Andria
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FBC Gravina
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fidelis Andria
3–2–1
FBC Gravina
(6 last)
- FBC Gravina1-0Fidelis Andria
- Fidelis Andria4-1FBC Gravina
- Fidelis Andria1-1FBC Gravina
- FBC Gravina1-6Fidelis Andria
- FBC Gravina1-1Fidelis Andria
- Fidelis Andria2-1FBC Gravina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fidelis Andria 1522 · FBC Gravina 1573
| Fidelis Andria | Draw | FBC Gravina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Gravina (rating 1522 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Fidelis Andria: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fidelis Andria | FBC Gravina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/63/13% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5 | 1.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.5 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fidelis Andria 3–2–1 FBC Gravina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Italy Serie D | FBC Gravina | 1-0 | Fidelis Andria |
| 28/09/25 Italy Serie D | Fidelis Andria | 4-1 HT 0-1 | FBC Gravina |
| 13/04/25 Italy Serie D | Fidelis Andria | 1-1 | FBC Gravina |
| 01/12/24 Italy Serie D | FBC Gravina | 1-6 HT 0-2 | Fidelis Andria |
| 28/01/24 Italy Serie D | FBC Gravina | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fidelis Andria |
| 01/10/23 Italy Serie D | Fidelis Andria | 2-1 | FBC Gravina |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD CastrumFavara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Ragusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Enna Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Igea Virtus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Licata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reggina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milazzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nissa FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vibonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vigor Lamezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 | Trapani | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Siracusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fidelis Andria | FBC Gravina |
|---|---|---|
| FC Pompei | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Manfredonia | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Sarnese | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Virtus Francavilla | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Francavilla | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Afragolese 1944 | 1-2 L | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FBC Gravina (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fidelis Andria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | FC Pompei Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Manfredonia Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/04 | FC Francavilla Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/03 | Real Acerrana Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/03 | ASD Heraclea Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 01/03 | AC Nardo Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/02 | Citta di Fasano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
FBC Gravina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Paganese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/03 | Manfredonia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | Barletta Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/03 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/03 | FC Pompei Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/02 | Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 15/02 | FC Francavilla Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fidelis Andria vs FBC Gravina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fidelis Andria win (43%). Probabilities: Fidelis Andria 43%, draw 30%, FBC Gravina 27%.
How many goals are expected in Fidelis Andria vs FBC Gravina?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Fidelis Andria 1.35 · FBC Gravina 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fidelis Andria vs FBC Gravina?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.