Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa 1925

Team pages: Virtus Francavilla · Real Aversa 1925

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Virtus Francavilla1.71

Real Aversa 19250.99

1X2

53% 25% 21%

Virtus Francavilla Draw Real Aversa 1925

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Francavilla 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWWW

Real Aversa 1925 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLDDDD

Head-to-head

Virtus Francavilla 1–1–0 Real Aversa 1925 (2 last)

Real Aversa 19250-0Virtus Francavilla
Virtus Francavilla2-1Real Aversa 1925

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virtus Francavilla 1595 · Real Aversa 1925 1506

	Virtus Francavilla	Draw	Real Aversa 1925
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virtus Francavilla (rating 1595 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virtus Francavilla	Real Aversa 1925
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.8	1.8 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07	1.67	3.60	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Francavilla 1–1–0 Real Aversa 1925

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Italy Serie D	Real Aversa 1925	0-0	Virtus Francavilla
28/09/25 Italy Serie D	Virtus Francavilla	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Aversa 1925

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Francavilla	Real Aversa 1925
SS Turris Calcio	2-1 W	1-1 D
Manfredonia	2-0 W	0-0 D
Fidelis Andria	1-2 L	0-1 L
Real Forio 2014	2-0 W	1-1 D
FBC Gravina	2-4 L	1-0 W
Gladiator	2-1 W	3-3 D
Martina	2-1 W	1-2 L
Brindisi FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Virtus Francavilla (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Francavilla

WWWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Francavilla Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/11	SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/10	Manfredonia Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
18/10	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
04/10	FBC Gravina Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
27/09	Gladiator Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
20/09	Martina Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Brindisi FC Italy Serie D	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
13/09	Melfi Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W

Real Aversa 1925

DLWWLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Manfredonia Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
01/11	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/10	Gladiator Italy Serie D	–	3-3	–	–	D
11/10	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
04/10	Brindisi FC Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
27/09	FBC Gravina Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	1-0	4-3	2	2	W
16/09	Martina Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
12/09	Ischia Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa 1925?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virtus Francavilla win (53%). Probabilities: Virtus Francavilla 53%, draw 25%, Real Aversa 1925 21%.

How many goals are expected in Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa 1925?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Virtus Francavilla 1.71 · Real Aversa 1925 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa 1925?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.