Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30
Prediction: San Donato Tavarnelle vs Robur Siena
Team pages: San Donato Tavarnelle · Robur Siena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
San Donato Tavarnelle0.95
Robur Siena1.61
1X2
San Donato Tavarnelle
Draw
Robur Siena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
San Donato Tavarnelle
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Robur Siena
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Donato Tavarnelle
1–1–4
Robur Siena
(6 last)
- San Donato Tavarnelle2-3Robur Siena
- Robur Siena0-2San Donato Tavarnelle
- Robur Siena2-0San Donato Tavarnelle
- San Donato Tavarnelle0-1Robur Siena
- San Donato Tavarnelle1-1Robur Siena
- Robur Siena3-0San Donato Tavarnelle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Donato Tavarnelle 1483 · Robur Siena 1569
| San Donato Tavarnelle | Draw | Robur Siena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Robur Siena (rating 1483 vs 1569).
- H2H favours Robur Siena: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Donato Tavarnelle | Robur Siena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 17/50/33% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 5.2 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.7 | 4.3 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1–4 Robur Siena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie D | San Donato Tavarnelle | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Robur Siena |
| 16/11/25 Italy Serie D | Robur Siena | 0-2 | San Donato Tavarnelle |
| 05/01/25 Italy Serie D | Robur Siena | 2-0 | San Donato Tavarnelle |
| 08/09/24 Italy Serie D | San Donato Tavarnelle | 0-1 | Robur Siena |
| 05/03/23 Italy Serie C Group B | San Donato Tavarnelle | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Robur Siena |
| 29/10/22 Italy Serie C Group B | Robur Siena | 3-0 HT 1-0 | San Donato Tavarnelle |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Milazzo | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| 8 | Città di Gela | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Siracusa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | ASD Licata | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 12 | Nissa FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Modica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| 14 | Trapani | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
| 16 | ASD CastrumFavara | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Donato Tavarnelle | Robur Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Lucchese | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Aquila 1902 Montevarchi | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Mezzolara | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Robur Siena (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Donato Tavarnelle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Lucchese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/11 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/10 | Scandicci Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Prato Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | Mezzolara Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 27/09 | Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Gavorrano Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/09 | ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/09 | ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Robur Siena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | ASD Grassina Italy Serie D |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/11 | GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/10 | Ternana Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 04/10 | ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Lucchese Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Mezzolara Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Robur Siena?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Robur Siena win (52%). Probabilities: San Donato Tavarnelle 21%, draw 27%, Robur Siena 52%.
How many goals are expected in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Robur Siena?
The model expects 2.56 goals (San Donato Tavarnelle 0.95 · Robur Siena 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Robur Siena?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.