Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: ASD Sasso Marconi vs ASD Rondinella Marzocco

Team pages: ASD Sasso Marconi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

ASD Sasso Marconi1.29

ASD Rondinella Marzocco1.04

1X2

41% 29% 29%

ASD Sasso Marconi Draw ASD Rondinella Marzocco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Sasso Marconi 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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ASD Rondinella Marzocco 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

ASD Sasso Marconi 0–1–0 ASD Rondinella Marzocco (1 last)

ASD Sasso Marconi1-1ASD Rondinella Marzocco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Sasso Marconi 1460 · ASD Rondinella Marzocco 1465

	ASD Sasso Marconi	Draw	ASD Rondinella Marzocco
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Sasso Marconi	ASD Rondinella Marzocco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:57 +11’	1.91	3.25	3.50
01:14	2.15▲	3.20▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Sasso Marconi 0–1–0 ASD Rondinella Marzocco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Europe Friendlies	ASD Sasso Marconi	1-1 HT 0-1	ASD Rondinella Marzocco

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Sasso Marconi	ASD Rondinella Marzocco
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	1-3 L	1-0 W
SCD Progresso Calcio	4-0 W	2-1 W
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	1-2 L	2-3 L
Lucchese	2-0 W	0-0 D
Scandicci	0-2 L	0-3 L
Prato	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Sasso Marconi (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Sasso Marconi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/11	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
25/10	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	Lucchese Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/10	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Scandicci Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
27/09	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
20/09	Prato Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
16/09	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
13/09	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	6	6	L

ASD Rondinella Marzocco

LLDLWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	2	9	L
01/11	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/10	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/10	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
11/10	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
27/09	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
20/09	Lucchese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/09	Scandicci Italy Serie D	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
13/09	Prato Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Sasso Marconi vs ASD Rondinella Marzocco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Sasso Marconi win (41%). Probabilities: ASD Sasso Marconi 41%, draw 29%, ASD Rondinella Marzocco 29%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Sasso Marconi vs ASD Rondinella Marzocco?

The model expects 2.33 goals (ASD Sasso Marconi 1.29 · ASD Rondinella Marzocco 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Sasso Marconi vs ASD Rondinella Marzocco?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.