Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: AC Nardo vs FBC Gravina

Team pages: AC Nardo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

AC Nardo1.26

FBC Gravina1.4

1X2

33% 28% 39%

AC Nardo Draw FBC Gravina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Nardo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDDWLL

FBC Gravina 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDLW

Head-to-head

AC Nardo 2–2–2 FBC Gravina (6 last)

FBC Gravina2-2AC Nardo
AC Nardo1-1FBC Gravina
FBC Gravina2-0AC Nardo
AC Nardo5-1FBC Gravina
AC Nardo1-0FBC Gravina
FBC Gravina1-0AC Nardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Nardo 1458 · FBC Gravina 1561

	AC Nardo	Draw	FBC Gravina
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Gravina (rating 1458 vs 1561).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Nardo	FBC Gravina
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	2.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.4	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.4	2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:00 +5’	2.50	3.20	2.50
09:35 +5’	2.75▲	3.20	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Nardo 2–2–2 FBC Gravina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Italy Serie D	FBC Gravina	2-2	AC Nardo
21/09/25 Italy Serie D	AC Nardo	1-1 HT 1-1	FBC Gravina
02/03/25 Italy Serie D	FBC Gravina	2-0	AC Nardo
27/10/24 Italy Serie D	AC Nardo	5-1 HT 2-0	FBC Gravina
21/01/24 Italy Serie D	AC Nardo	1-0 HT 0-0	FBC Gravina
24/09/23 Italy Serie D	FBC Gravina	1-0	AC Nardo

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Nardo

DWLWLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
27/09	Martina Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	4	6	L
20/09	Ischia Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Melfi Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Ebolitana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Bisceglie 1913 Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
03/05	Barletta Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	Manfredonia Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
12/04	Sarnese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

FBC Gravina

WWWWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
27/09	Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/09	SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
12/09	Gladiator Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D	1-0	3-2	13	5	W
26/04	Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D	–	6-0	–	–	W
19/04	Paganese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D	1-0	5-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Nardo vs FBC Gravina?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBC Gravina win (39%). Probabilities: AC Nardo 33%, draw 28%, FBC Gravina 39%.

How many goals are expected in AC Nardo vs FBC Gravina?

The model expects 2.65 goals (AC Nardo 1.26 · FBC Gravina 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Nardo vs FBC Gravina?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.