Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Virtus Flaminia vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Team pages: Virtus Flaminia · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Virtus Flaminia1.35

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi1.14

1X2

41% 29% 31%

Virtus Flaminia Draw Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Flaminia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLDDWW

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Virtus Flaminia 0–3–2 Aquila 1902 Montevarchi (5 last)

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi2-1Virtus Flaminia
Virtus Flaminia2-2Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi3-1Virtus Flaminia
Virtus Flaminia0-0Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi2-2Virtus Flaminia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virtus Flaminia 1514 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 1508

	Virtus Flaminia	Draw	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Our model	40%	29%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aquila 1902 Montevarchi: 2-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virtus Flaminia	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/83/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.3 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +9’	2.20	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Flaminia 0–3–2 Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/01/25 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	2-1	Virtus Flaminia
08/09/24 Italy Serie D	Virtus Flaminia	2-2 HT 1-0	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
09/06/21 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	3-1	Virtus Flaminia
03/02/21 Italy Serie D	Virtus Flaminia	0-0 HT 0-0	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
17/11/19 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	2-2	Virtus Flaminia

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Flaminia	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	2-0 W	4-1 W
ASD Seravezza Calcio	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Donato Tavarnelle	2-1 W	0-1 L
ASD Sasso Marconi	2-2 D	3-1 W
ASD Grassina	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aquila 1902 Montevarchi (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Flaminia

WDLWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Scandicci Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
01/11	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
25/10	Prato Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
18/10	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
04/10	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-5	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
13/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	8	2	W

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

WDLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
01/11	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	14	2	W
11/10	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/10	Ternana Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L
27/09	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
16/09	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
12/09	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	2-1	4-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Flaminia vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virtus Flaminia win (41%). Probabilities: Virtus Flaminia 41%, draw 29%, Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 31%.

How many goals are expected in Virtus Flaminia vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Virtus Flaminia 1.35 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Virtus Flaminia vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.