Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Gavorrano vs Lucchese

Team pages: Gavorrano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Gavorrano1.45

Lucchese1.4

1X2

37% 27% 35%

Gavorrano Draw Lucchese

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gavorrano 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDDDWD

Lucchese 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDLDLW

Head-to-head

Gavorrano 1–1–0 Lucchese (2 last)

Lucchese0-0Gavorrano
Gavorrano1-0Lucchese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gavorrano 1549 · Lucchese 1509

	Gavorrano	Draw	Lucchese
Our model	37%	27%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gavorrano (rating 1549 vs 1509).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gavorrano	Lucchese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:59 +8’	2.20	3.20	2.90
12:08 +4’	2.25▲	3.20	2.88▼
05:19 +60’	2.40▲	3.25▲	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gavorrano 1–1–0 Lucchese

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/18 Italy Serie C Group A	Lucchese	0-0 HT 0-0	Gavorrano
22/10/17 Italy Serie C Group A	Gavorrano	1-0 HT 0-0	Lucchese

Standings · Italy Serie D

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gavorrano	Lucchese
ASD Seravezza Calcio	1-1 D	0-5 L
ASD Terranuova Traiana	1-1 D	2-3 L
ASD Sasso Marconi	2-1 W	0-2 L
San Donato Tavarnelle	2-0 W	1-0 W
GSD Ghiviborgo VDS	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gavorrano (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gavorrano

DWWWDDDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
01/11	Scandicci Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/10	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
18/10	Prato Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
11/10	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
04/10	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
20/09	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/09	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	–	1-0	0	0	W
12/09	Nuova Ternana Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Lucchese

LWDWWDLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/11	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	11	4	D
18/10	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
11/10	Ternana Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-2	6-3	6	7	W
27/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
20/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
16/09	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
12/09	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-5	0-5	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gavorrano vs Lucchese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gavorrano win (37%). Probabilities: Gavorrano 37%, draw 27%, Lucchese 35%.

How many goals are expected in Gavorrano vs Lucchese?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Gavorrano 1.45 · Lucchese 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gavorrano vs Lucchese?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.