Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Mezzolara vs Scandicci

Team pages: Mezzolara · Scandicci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Mezzolara1.31

Scandicci1.28

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Mezzolara Draw Scandicci

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mezzolara 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDDDDLD

Scandicci 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Mezzolara 4–1–1 Scandicci (6 last)

Mezzolara0-1Scandicci
Scandicci2-2Mezzolara
Mezzolara2-1Scandicci
Scandicci1-2Mezzolara
Scandicci0-2Mezzolara
Mezzolara2-1Scandicci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mezzolara 1483 · Scandicci 1498

	Mezzolara	Draw	Scandicci
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mezzolara: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mezzolara	Scandicci
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.8	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:52 +15’	2.50	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mezzolara 4–1–1 Scandicci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/23 Italy Serie D	Mezzolara	0-1 HT 0-0	Scandicci
04/12/22 Italy Serie D	Scandicci	2-2 HT 2-1	Mezzolara
08/01/17 Italy Serie D	Mezzolara	2-1	Scandicci
04/09/16 Italy Serie D	Scandicci	1-2	Mezzolara
21/03/15 Italy Serie D	Scandicci	0-2	Mezzolara
08/11/14 Italy Serie D	Mezzolara	2-1	Scandicci

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mezzolara	Scandicci
Gavorrano	1-1 D	2-3 L
ASD Terranuova Traiana	1-1 D	0-1 L
Virtus Flaminia	1-1 D	1-2 L
ASD Sasso Marconi	2-2 D	2-0 W
San Donato Tavarnelle	1-1 D	2-1 W
ASD Grassina	0-0 D	3-2 W
GSD Ghiviborgo VDS	1-1 D	3-3 D
Ternana	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 7 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mezzolara (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mezzolara

LWDDDDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/11	Prato Italy Serie D	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/10	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
27/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
20/09	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
16/09	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
12/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L

Scandicci

LWWDWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
01/11	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
18/10	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	–	3-3	–	–	D
04/10	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
27/09	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	0-2	3-2	1	5	W
16/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
12/09	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mezzolara vs Scandicci?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mezzolara win (36%). Probabilities: Mezzolara 36%, draw 29%, Scandicci 35%.

How many goals are expected in Mezzolara vs Scandicci?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Mezzolara 1.31 · Scandicci 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mezzolara vs Scandicci?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.