Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Prato vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Team pages: Prato · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Prato1.85

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio0.96

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Prato Draw ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Prato 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDDWW

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLWLD

Head-to-head

Prato 0–1–3 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio (4 last)

Prato2-2ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio3-2Prato
Prato0-2ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1-0Prato

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Prato 1576 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1491

	Prato	Draw	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Prato (rating 1576 vs 1491).
H2H favours ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio: 3-1-0.
High corners: 14.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Prato	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.6	2.6 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +5’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Prato 0–1–3 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Italy Serie D	Prato	2-2 HT 2-1	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
24/09/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	3-2 HT 2-1	Prato
30/03/25 Italy Serie D	Prato	0-2 HT 0-0	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
17/11/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	1-0 HT 0-0	Prato

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Prato	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Virtus Flaminia	1-1 D	0-2 L
San Donato Tavarnelle	2-0 W	0-1 L
ASD Terranuova Traiana	1-1 D	0-0 D
GSD Ghiviborgo VDS	2-1 W	1-0 W
ASD Sasso Marconi	1-0 W	2-1 W
ASD Grassina	1-1 D	1-1 D
ASD Rondinella Marzocco	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Prato (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Prato

WDWWDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
01/11	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
25/10	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	14	5	D
18/10	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
11/10	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
03/10	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
20/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
13/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	2	8	W

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

LWLWWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	14	3	D
01/11	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
25/10	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/10	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
11/10	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
04/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
27/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
20/09	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
16/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	1-2	1-4	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Prato vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Prato win (57%). Probabilities: Prato 57%, draw 25%, ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 18%.

How many goals are expected in Prato vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Prato 1.85 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Prato vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.