Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Borgosesia vs GSD Lascaris

Team pages: Borgosesia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Borgosesia1.35

GSD Lascaris1.12

1X2

41% 28% 30%

Borgosesia Draw GSD Lascaris

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Borgosesia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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GSD Lascaris 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Borgosesia 1489 · GSD Lascaris 1480

	Borgosesia	Draw	GSD Lascaris
Our model	41%	30%	30%
Market	42%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Borgosesia	GSD Lascaris
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.4	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +16’	2.10	3.25	3.00
05:48 +31’	2.15▲	3.25	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Borgosesia	GSD Lascaris
USD Fezzanese	1-1 D	0-1 L
Alessandria	1-3 L	1-2 L
Asti	3-0 W	1-0 W
ASD Imperia	4-2 W	1-1 D
ASD Millesimo Calcio	0-3 L	0-2 L
Sestri Levante	0-1 L	1-1 D
Valenzana	2-1 W	1-0 W
AC Bra	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: GSD Lascaris (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Borgosesia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
01/11	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/10	Asti Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/10	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
11/10	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/10	Sestri Levante Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
27/09	Valenzana Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
20/09	AC Bra Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/09	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L

GSD Lascaris

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Biellesse Italy Serie D	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
01/11	Derthona Italy Serie D	2-2	3-4	4	10	L
25/10	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/10	Alessandria Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	Asti Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
20/09	Sestri Levante Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	Valenzana Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	AC Bra Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Borgosesia vs GSD Lascaris?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Borgosesia win (41%). Probabilities: Borgosesia 41%, draw 28%, GSD Lascaris 30%.

How many goals are expected in Borgosesia vs GSD Lascaris?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Borgosesia 1.35 · GSD Lascaris 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Borgosesia vs GSD Lascaris?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.