Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Derthona vs USD Fezzanese

Team pages: Derthona · USD Fezzanese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Derthona1.68

USD Fezzanese1.02

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Derthona Draw USD Fezzanese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Derthona 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLDDWW

USD Fezzanese 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Derthona 1–3–2 USD Fezzanese (6 last)

Derthona0-1USD Fezzanese
USD Fezzanese1-1Derthona
Derthona1-1USD Fezzanese
USD Fezzanese2-1Derthona
Derthona1-1USD Fezzanese
USD Fezzanese0-3Derthona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derthona 1519 · USD Fezzanese 1451

	Derthona	Draw	USD Fezzanese
Our model	52%	27%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derthona (rating 1519 vs 1451).
H2H favours USD Fezzanese: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derthona	USD Fezzanese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.3	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	13/25/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +2’	1.73	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derthona 1–3–2 USD Fezzanese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/24 Italy Serie D	Derthona	0-1	USD Fezzanese
10/12/23 Italy Serie D	USD Fezzanese	1-1 HT 1-1	Derthona
29/01/23 Italy Serie D	Derthona	1-1 HT 0-1	USD Fezzanese
28/09/22 Italy Serie D	USD Fezzanese	2-1	Derthona
17/04/16 Italy Serie D	Derthona	1-1	USD Fezzanese
29/11/15 Italy Serie D	USD Fezzanese	0-3	Derthona

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derthona	USD Fezzanese
ASDC Gozzano	2-1 W	0-2 L
GSD Lascaris	4-3 W	1-0 W
Asti	1-1 D	0-2 L
Chisola	2-4 L	2-0 W
Alessandria	1-3 L	0-2 L
ASD Millesimo Calcio	1-0 W	0-4 L
ASD Imperia	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Derthona (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derthona

DWWDLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/11	GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D	2-2	4-3	6	10	W
25/10	AC Bra Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/10	Asti Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/10	Chisola Italy Serie D	1-4	2-4	4	2	L
04/10	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
27/09	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Ligorna Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	10	4	W
13/09	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

USD Fezzanese

WWLLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
31/10	Asti Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
25/10	GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
11/10	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
04/10	Valenzana Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
27/09	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/09	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
16/09	Sestri Levante Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Chisola Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derthona vs USD Fezzanese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derthona win (52%). Probabilities: Derthona 52%, draw 26%, USD Fezzanese 22%.

How many goals are expected in Derthona vs USD Fezzanese?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Derthona 1.68 · USD Fezzanese 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derthona vs USD Fezzanese?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.