Football · Uganda Premier League · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: Uganda Police FC vs Mbarara City

Team pages: Uganda Police FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Uganda Police FC1.74

Mbarara City0.76

1X2

60% 25% 15%

Uganda Police FC Draw Mbarara City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Uganda Police FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLDDD

Mbarara City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Uganda Police FC 2–4–0 Mbarara City (6 last)

Mbarara City1-2Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC1-1Mbarara City
Uganda Police FC2-0Mbarara City
Mbarara City0-0Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC1-1Mbarara City
Mbarara City1-1Uganda Police FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uganda Police FC 1458 · Mbarara City 1477

	Uganda Police FC	Draw	Mbarara City
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Uganda Police FC: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uganda Police FC	Mbarara City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	0 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.70

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:46 +12’	1.48	3.70	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uganda Police FC 2–4–0 Mbarara City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Uganda Premier League	Mbarara City	1-2 HT 1-0	Uganda Police FC
26/09/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Mbarara City
10/04/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Mbarara City
20/09/24 Uganda Premier League	Mbarara City	0-0 HT 0-0	Uganda Police FC
26/03/23 Uganda Division 2	Uganda Police FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Mbarara City
24/11/22 Uganda Division 2	Mbarara City	1-1 HT 0-1	Uganda Police FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Entebbe UPPC	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Blacks Power	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	BUL FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Express FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kataka FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	KCCA	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kitara FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lugazi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Maroons	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Mbarara City	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ntugasaze FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SC Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Uganda Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	UPDF FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	URA	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Vipers SC	1	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uganda Police FC	Mbarara City
UPDF FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
Maroons	1-3 L	2-2 D
Express FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
NEC FC Bugolobi	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mbarara City (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uganda Police FC

LLWWLWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
12/05	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/04	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-2	1-3	6	8	L
21/04	URA Uganda Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
16/04	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
08/04	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/03	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Mbarara City

DLLDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
19/05	Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	6	L
06/05	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
28/04	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
24/04	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
21/04	Maroons Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
16/04	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
09/04	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
13/03	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uganda Police FC vs Mbarara City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Uganda Police FC win (60%). Probabilities: Uganda Police FC 60%, draw 25%, Mbarara City 15%.

How many goals are expected in Uganda Police FC vs Mbarara City?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Uganda Police FC 1.74 · Mbarara City 0.76), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Uganda Police FC vs Mbarara City?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.