Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Polisportiva Pietralunghese vs ASD Atletico Ascoli

Team pages: Polisportiva Pietralunghese · ASD Atletico Ascoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Polisportiva Pietralunghese0.98

ASD Atletico Ascoli1.15

1X2

30% 30% 39%

Polisportiva Pietralunghese Draw ASD Atletico Ascoli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Polisportiva Pietralunghese 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWLDL

ASD Atletico Ascoli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polisportiva Pietralunghese 1452 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1514

	Polisportiva Pietralunghese	Draw	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Our model	29%	32%	38%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Atletico Ascoli (rating 1452 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polisportiva Pietralunghese	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	2.10 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07	3.10	3.20	2.10
05:34 +45’	2.90▼	3.10▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polisportiva Pietralunghese	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Vigor Senigallia	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Forsempronese	0-0 D	0-1 L
Giulianova Calcio 1924	0-1 L	2-4 L
ASD Sporting Trestina	2-0 W	1-0 W
L'Aquila	0-3 L	0-0 D
Maceratese	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polisportiva Pietralunghese

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
01/11	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
17/10	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	ASD Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
26/09	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
20/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

ASD Atletico Ascoli

WDWLLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/10	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Lanciano Italy Serie D	2-1	5-1	4	2	W
11/10	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
04/10	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-4	4	6	L
20/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polisportiva Pietralunghese vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ASD Atletico Ascoli win (39%). Probabilities: Polisportiva Pietralunghese 30%, draw 30%, ASD Atletico Ascoli 39%.

How many goals are expected in Polisportiva Pietralunghese vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Polisportiva Pietralunghese 0.98 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Polisportiva Pietralunghese vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.