Football · Italy Serie D · 08/11, 14:00
Prediction: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese
Team pages: Sarrabus Ogliastra · Paganese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Sarrabus Ogliastra1.31
Paganese1.24
1X2
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Draw
Paganese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarrabus Ogliastra
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Paganese
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0–4
Paganese
(4 last)
- Sarrabus Ogliastra0-3Paganese
- Paganese4-1Sarrabus Ogliastra
- Sarrabus Ogliastra0-1Paganese
- Paganese2-1Sarrabus Ogliastra
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paganese (rating 1455 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Paganese: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarrabus Ogliastra | Paganese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/0/100% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–0–4 Paganese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/25 Italy Serie D | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0-3 | Paganese |
| 01/11/24 Italy Serie D | Paganese | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Sarrabus Ogliastra |
| 06/04/23 Italy Serie D | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Paganese |
| 26/11/22 Italy Serie D | Paganese | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sarrabus Ogliastra |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | ASD Licata | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 14 |
| 9 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Città di Gela | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Nissa FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 11 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 8 |
| 14 | ASD CastrumFavara | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Modica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarrabus Ogliastra | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Sarnese | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Gelbison | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| ASD Trastevere | 2-3 L | 6-1 W |
| Afragolese 1944 | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| USD Latte Dolce | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Unipomezia | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Paganese (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarrabus Ogliastra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Gelbison Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/10 | ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | USD Latte Dolce Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/09 | Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/09 | Certosa Vigor Campagnano Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Paganese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Polisportiva Ossese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/10 | Citta di Anagni Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/10 | US Venafro Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | Budoni Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Gelbison Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D |
4-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/09 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | USD Latte Dolce Italy Serie D |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarrabus Ogliastra win (37%). Probabilities: Sarrabus Ogliastra 37%, draw 29%, Paganese 34%.
How many goals are expected in Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Sarrabus Ogliastra 1.31 · Paganese 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.