Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Recanatese vs FC Forsempronese

Team pages: Recanatese · FC Forsempronese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Recanatese1.25

FC Forsempronese1.42

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Recanatese Draw FC Forsempronese

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Recanatese 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLLWLL

FC Forsempronese 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Recanatese 2–2 FC Forsempronese (4 last)

Recanatese2-0FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese1-0Recanatese
FC Forsempronese4-1Recanatese
Recanatese2-0FC Forsempronese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Recanatese 1442 · FC Forsempronese 1497

	Recanatese	Draw	FC Forsempronese
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Forsempronese (rating 1442 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Recanatese	FC Forsempronese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	1.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.30 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +4’	2.75	3.20	2.30
06:14 +5’	2.80▲	3.20	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Recanatese 2–0–2 FC Forsempronese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	2-0	FC Forsempronese
21/12/25 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-0 HT 1-0	Recanatese
23/02/25 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	4-1	Recanatese
23/10/24 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	2-0	FC Forsempronese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Recanatese	FC Forsempronese
ASD Sporting Trestina	0-1 L	1-0 W
L'Aquila	2-3 L	0-4 L
Lanciano	1-4 L	2-4 L
Santegidiese	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Forsempronese (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Recanatese

DWDLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
01/11	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
25/10	ASD Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	2-1	2-3	0	7	L
10/10	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
04/10	Maceratese Italy Serie D	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
27/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L
20/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
12/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

FC Forsempronese

LWLDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	4-1	–	–	W
01/11	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
18/10	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
11/10	Termoli Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	4	8	L
04/10	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
20/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
12/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	0-1	0-4	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Recanatese vs FC Forsempronese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Forsempronese win (40%). Probabilities: Recanatese 32%, draw 28%, FC Forsempronese 40%.

How many goals are expected in Recanatese vs FC Forsempronese?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Recanatese 1.25 · FC Forsempronese 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Recanatese vs FC Forsempronese?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.