Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs L'Aquila

Team pages: Notaresco Calcio 1924 · L'Aquila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Notaresco Calcio 19241.26

L'Aquila1.4

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Notaresco Calcio 1924 Draw L'Aquila

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Notaresco Calcio 1924 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDWWWD

L'Aquila 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Notaresco Calcio 1924 2–1–3 L'Aquila (6 last)

L'Aquila0-2Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19241-2L'Aquila
Notaresco Calcio 19241-0L'Aquila
L'Aquila2-1Notaresco Calcio 1924
L'Aquila1-0Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19240-0L'Aquila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1524 · L'Aquila 1561

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Draw	L'Aquila
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours L'Aquila: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	L'Aquila
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +34’	2.75	3.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notaresco Calcio 1924 2–1–3 L'Aquila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	0-2 HT 0-1	Notaresco Calcio 1924
23/11/25 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	1-2	L'Aquila
23/02/25 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	1-0 HT 0-0	L'Aquila
23/10/24 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	2-1	Notaresco Calcio 1924
05/05/24 Italy Serie D	L'Aquila	1-0	Notaresco Calcio 1924
20/12/23 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	0-0	L'Aquila

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	ASD Licata	9	5	2	2	12	14	17
5	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	13	8	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	9	2	2	5	10	12	8
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notaresco Calcio 1924	L'Aquila
Recanatese	2-1 W	3-2 W
Polisportiva Pietralunghese	1-1 D	3-0 W
Foligno	0-1 L	3-2 W
Santegidiese	1-0 W	2-1 W
Teramo	2-2 D	2-0 W
U.S. Ancona	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: L'Aquila (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notaresco Calcio 1924

LLDWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Lanciano Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
18/10	Maceratese Italy Serie D	0-2	5-2	11	4	W
10/10	Recanatese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
04/10	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
26/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	2	9	D
06/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	3	3	L

L'Aquila

DWWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Foligno Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
18/10	Recanatese Italy Serie D	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
11/10	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
27/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
16/09	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
06/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs L'Aquila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an L'Aquila win (39%). Probabilities: Notaresco Calcio 1924 33%, draw 28%, L'Aquila 39%.

How many goals are expected in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs L'Aquila?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Notaresco Calcio 1924 1.26 · L'Aquila 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs L'Aquila?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.