Football · Italy Serie D · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: ASD Atletico Ascoli vs FC Forsempronese

Team pages: ASD Atletico Ascoli · FC Forsempronese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

ASD Atletico Ascoli1.47

FC Forsempronese0.91

1X2

49% 28% 23%

ASD Atletico Ascoli Draw FC Forsempronese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Atletico Ascoli 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLWDWL

FC Forsempronese 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLWLD

Head-to-head

ASD Atletico Ascoli 0–5–1 FC Forsempronese (6 last)

ASD Atletico Ascoli1-1FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese0-0ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli1-1FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese1-0ASD Atletico Ascoli
FC Forsempronese1-1ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli0-0FC Forsempronese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1487 · FC Forsempronese 1460

	ASD Atletico Ascoli	Draw	FC Forsempronese
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Atletico Ascoli	FC Forsempronese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.7	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:29 +6’	1.80	3.30	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Atletico Ascoli 0–5–1 FC Forsempronese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Forsempronese
07/12/25 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	0-0	ASD Atletico Ascoli
16/02/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	1-1	FC Forsempronese
20/10/24 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-0 HT 1-0	ASD Atletico Ascoli
14/04/24 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-1	ASD Atletico Ascoli
03/12/23 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Forsempronese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	5	5	0	0	15	0	15
2	Sambiase	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	Igea Virtus	5	3	1	1	13	10	10
4	Vibonese	5	3	1	1	13	5	10
5	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	5	2	3	0	8	2	9
6	Calcio Avola 1949	5	3	0	2	8	10	9
7	ASD Licata	5	2	2	1	6	7	8
8	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
9	Nissa FC	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	Milazzo	5	2	0	3	4	8	6
11	Siracusa	5	3	2	0	8	4	4
12	Modica	5	1	1	3	3	5	4
13	ASD CastrumFavara	5	1	1	3	5	5	4
14	Città di Gela	5	1	1	3	4	6	3
15	ASD Ragusa	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
16	Vigor Lamezia	5	0	2	3	5	13	2
17	Enna Calcio	5	0	1	4	0	12	1
18	Trapani	5	1	0	4	2	10	-2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Atletico Ascoli	FC Forsempronese
Giulianova Calcio 1924	2-4 L	2-1 W
ASD Sporting Trestina	1-0 W	1-0 W
L'Aquila	0-0 D	0-4 L
Vigor Senigallia	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Atletico Ascoli

WDDLDLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-4	4	6	L
20/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Sammaurese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
12/04	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
02/04	ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	13	5	W

FC Forsempronese

LLDWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
20/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
12/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	0-1	0-4	8	5	L
06/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
03/05	Recanatese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Castelfidardo Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/04	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/04	San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Atletico Ascoli vs FC Forsempronese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Atletico Ascoli win (49%). Probabilities: ASD Atletico Ascoli 49%, draw 28%, FC Forsempronese 23%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Atletico Ascoli vs FC Forsempronese?

The model expects 2.39 goals (ASD Atletico Ascoli 1.47 · FC Forsempronese 0.91), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Atletico Ascoli vs FC Forsempronese?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.