Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 16/08, 21:15
Prediction: Casa Pia vs Benfica
Team pages: Casa Pia · Benfica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Casa Pia0.64
Benfica2.43
1X2
Casa Pia
Draw
Benfica
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Casa Pia
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Benfica
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Casa Pia
1–3–2
Benfica
(6 last)
- Casa Pia1-1Benfica
- Benfica2-2Casa Pia
- Casa Pia3-1Benfica
- Benfica3-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-1Benfica
- Benfica1-1Casa Pia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casa Pia 1443 · Benfica 1555
| Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 17% | 76% |
| Market | 7% | 17% | 76% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1443 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Benfica: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Casa Pia | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 3.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.9 | 3.4 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casa Pia 1–3–2 Benfica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Benfica |
| 09/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Casa Pia |
| 25/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Benfica |
| 17/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Casa Pia |
| 17/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Benfica |
| 28/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Casa Pia |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casa Pia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Leixoes Europe Friendlies |
2-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Feirense Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 28/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Primeira Liga Play-Off |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Primeira Liga Play-Off |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 12 | L |
| 27/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Benfica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Hearts UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/07 | St Gallen UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | CF Os Belenenses Elite Club Friendlies |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | St Gallen UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/07 | Villarreal Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Flamengo World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Benfica win (76%). Probabilities: Casa Pia 7%, draw 17%, Benfica 76%.
How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Casa Pia 0.64 · Benfica 2.43), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.