Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30
Prediction: Pro Patria vs USD Castellanzese
Team pages: Pro Patria · USD Castellanzese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Pro Patria1.53
USD Castellanzese0.82
1X2
Pro Patria
Draw
USD Castellanzese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Pro Patria
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
USD Castellanzese
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pro Patria
2–1
USD Castellanzese
(3 last)
- USD Castellanzese0-2Pro Patria
- USD Castellanzese3-1Pro Patria
- USD Castellanzese1-3Pro Patria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pro Patria 1549 · USD Castellanzese 1516
| Pro Patria | Draw | USD Castellanzese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Pro Patria: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pro Patria | USD Castellanzese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 5.8 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pro Patria 2–0–1 USD Castellanzese
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/25 Europe Friendlies | USD Castellanzese | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Pro Patria |
| 03/08/24 Europe Friendlies | USD Castellanzese | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Pro Patria |
| 09/08/23 Europe Friendlies | USD Castellanzese | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Pro Patria |
Standings · Italy Serie D
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | Milazzo | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| 8 | Città di Gela | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Siracusa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | ASD Licata | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 12 | Nissa FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Modica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| 14 | Trapani | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Vigor Lamezia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
| 16 | ASD CastrumFavara | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pro Patria | USD Castellanzese |
|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 0-0 D | 2-4 L |
| Correggese | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| USD Casatese | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| ASD Varesina | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Solbiatese Calcio 1911 | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Arconatese | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| A.C. Crema 1908 | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pro Patria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/11 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/10 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/10 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Pontedera Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
USD Castellanzese
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/11 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Oltrepò Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Lentigione Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pro Patria vs USD Castellanzese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pro Patria win (53%). Probabilities: Pro Patria 53%, draw 27%, USD Castellanzese 19%.
How many goals are expected in Pro Patria vs USD Castellanzese?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Pro Patria 1.53 · USD Castellanzese 0.82), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Pro Patria vs USD Castellanzese?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.