Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: ASD Varesina vs Pontedera

Team pages: ASD Varesina · Pontedera

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
ASD Varesina1.93
Pontedera1.19
1X2
53% 25% 22%
ASD Varesina Draw Pontedera
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Varesina 1-5-4 (W-D-L)
DLLLDDDDWL
Pontedera 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LLLLLWLDWL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Varesina 1473 · Pontedera 1436
ASD VaresinaDrawPontedera
Our model53%24%22%
Market53%25%22%
Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ASD VaresinaPontedera
Goals for / against (FT)1.1 / 1.41 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.60.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/100/0%43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)1.9 / 4.42.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4 / 04 / 0.3

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 11821 28726
2 Sambiase 11821 19826
3 Vibonese 11731 241024
4 Calcio Avola 1949 11614 171619
5 Milazzo 11614 141319
6 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 11533 161018
7 Igea Virtus 11533 252218
8 Città di Gela 11443 13915
9 Siracusa 11632 181014
10 ASD Licata 11425 112214
11 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 10424 131214
12 Nissa FC 11335 161512
13 Modica 10316 121310
14 Trapani 11425 9149
15 Vigor Lamezia 11227 11218
16 ASD CastrumFavara 11227 12198
17 ASD Ragusa 11038 9233
18 Enna Calcio 11038 4273

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentASD VaresinaPontedera
Tropical Coriano 1-2 L 2-1 W
Citta di Varese 3-1 W 0-3 L
Pro Sesto 0-0 D 0-3 L
Pro Patria 0-0 D 2-3 L
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 1 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Varesina (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Varesina

DLLLDDDDWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/11 Tropical Coriano
Italy Serie D
– 1-2 –– L
01/11 Citta di Varese
Italy Serie D
1-1 3-1 44 W
25/10 USD Castellanzese
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-1 44 D
18/10 Pro Sesto
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 41 D
11/10 Pavia
Italy Serie D
1-1 2-2 45 D
04/10 Pro Patria
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 35 D
27/09 USD Casatese
Italy Serie D
– 2-4 –– L
20/09 Pistoiese
Italy Serie D
– 0-1 –– L
16/09 Correggese
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-2 64 L
13/09 A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-1 65 D

Pontedera

LLLLLWLDWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/11 Solbiatese Calcio 1911
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-1 32 L
01/11 Arconatese
Italy Serie D
– 4-3 –– W
25/10 Oltrepò
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-1 137 D
18/10 A.C. Crema 1908
Italy Serie D
– 1-4 –– L
14/10 Tropical Coriano
Italy Serie D
1-0 2-1 38 W
11/10 Lentigione
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-2 02 L
04/10 Cittadella Vis Modena
Italy Serie D
– 0-3 –– L
20/09 Citta di Varese
Italy Serie D
0-1 0-3 53 L
16/09 Pro Sesto
Italy Serie D
0-2 0-3 73 L
12/09 Pro Patria
Italy Serie D
1-0 2-3 25 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Varesina vs Pontedera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Varesina win (53%). Probabilities: ASD Varesina 53%, draw 25%, Pontedera 22%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Varesina vs Pontedera?

The model expects 3.12 goals (ASD Varesina 1.93 · Pontedera 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Varesina vs Pontedera?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.