Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: AC Chievo Verona vs Pro Palazzo

Team pages: AC Chievo Verona · Pro Palazzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

AC Chievo Verona1.79

Pro Palazzo0.99

1X2

55% 25% 20%

AC Chievo Verona Draw Pro Palazzo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Chievo Verona 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Pro Palazzo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AC Chievo Verona 1–3 Pro Palazzo (4 last)

AC Chievo Verona2-1Pro Palazzo
Pro Palazzo1-0AC Chievo Verona
Pro Palazzo1-0AC Chievo Verona
AC Chievo Verona1-4Pro Palazzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Chievo Verona 1557 · Pro Palazzo 1499

	AC Chievo Verona	Draw	Pro Palazzo
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Chievo Verona (rating 1557 vs 1499).
H2H favours Pro Palazzo: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Chievo Verona	Pro Palazzo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/57/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	2.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:01 +7’	1.73	3.50	4.00
10:06 +4’	1.61▼	3.50	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Chievo Verona 1–0–3 Pro Palazzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/25 Italy Serie D	AC Chievo Verona	2-1 HT 2-0	Pro Palazzo
14/09/24 Italy Serie D	Pro Palazzo	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Chievo Verona
21/01/24 Italy Serie D	Pro Palazzo	1-0	AC Chievo Verona
24/09/23 Italy Serie D	AC Chievo Verona	1-4	Pro Palazzo

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Chievo Verona	Pro Palazzo
US Fiorenzuola	2-1 W	1-0 W
AC Milan U23	1-2 L	2-0 W
ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone	0-2 L	0-1 L
Rovato Vertovese SSD	4-3 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pro Palazzo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Chievo Verona

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/10	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
25/10	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
18/10	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
11/10	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Tritium Italy Serie D	1-0	5-0	7	6	W
27/09	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
21/09	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
16/09	Club Milano Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
12/09	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	4-3	–	–	W

Pro Palazzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	3-1	3-2	5	6	W
01/11	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/10	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	3	0	L
11/10	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
04/10	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
12/09	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Chievo Verona vs Pro Palazzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Chievo Verona win (55%). Probabilities: AC Chievo Verona 55%, draw 25%, Pro Palazzo 20%.

How many goals are expected in AC Chievo Verona vs Pro Palazzo?

The model expects 2.78 goals (AC Chievo Verona 1.79 · Pro Palazzo 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Chievo Verona vs Pro Palazzo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.