Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Club Milano vs ASD Caldiero Terme

Team pages: Club Milano · ASD Caldiero Terme

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Club Milano1.09

ASD Caldiero Terme1.28

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Club Milano Draw ASD Caldiero Terme

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Milano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLDLW

ASD Caldiero Terme 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Club Milano 1–1 ASD Caldiero Terme (2 last)

ASD Caldiero Terme0-1Club Milano
Club Milano1-2ASD Caldiero Terme

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Milano 1473 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1535

	Club Milano	Draw	ASD Caldiero Terme
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Caldiero Terme (rating 1473 vs 1535).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Milano	ASD Caldiero Terme
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/57/43%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:56 +11’	2.88	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Milano 1–0–1 ASD Caldiero Terme

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Caldiero Terme	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Milano
08/10/23 Italy Serie D	Club Milano	1-2 HT 1-0	ASD Caldiero Terme

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Milano	ASD Caldiero Terme
US Fiorenzuola	2-1 W	1-1 D
Scanzorosciate	1-3 L	1-0 W
Real Calepina FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
AC Leon Monza Brianza	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Caldiero Terme (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Milano

WLLDLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/11	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	1-1	1-3	4	7	L
25/10	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
18/10	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
11/10	Tritium Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
27/09	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
20/09	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
16/09	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
12/09	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W

ASD Caldiero Terme

DDWDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
01/11	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
18/10	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
11/10	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
04/10	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	US Fiorenzuola Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Milano vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ASD Caldiero Terme win (40%). Probabilities: Club Milano 31%, draw 29%, ASD Caldiero Terme 40%.

How many goals are expected in Club Milano vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Club Milano 1.09 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Milano vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.