Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Tritium vs Real Calepina FC

Team pages: Tritium · Real Calepina FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Tritium1.26

Real Calepina FC1.29

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Tritium Draw Real Calepina FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tritium 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Real Calepina FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tritium 2–1–2 Real Calepina FC (5 last)

Tritium0-3Real Calepina FC
Real Calepina FC1-1Tritium
Tritium9-0Real Calepina FC
Real Calepina FC0-1Tritium
Tritium2-3Real Calepina FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tritium 1445 · Real Calepina FC 1454

	Tritium	Draw	Real Calepina FC
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tritium	Real Calepina FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	14/43/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.6	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:55 +15’	2.55	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tritium 2–1–2 Real Calepina FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/24 Italy Serie D	Tritium	0-3 HT 0-1	Real Calepina FC
28/10/23 Italy Serie D	Real Calepina FC	1-1	Tritium
02/08/23 Club Friendly List	Tritium	9-0 HT 6-0	Real Calepina FC
10/04/21 Italy Serie D	Real Calepina FC	0-1	Tritium
20/12/20 Italy Serie D	Tritium	2-3	Real Calepina FC

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tritium	Real Calepina FC
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Club Milano	0-1 L	2-1 W
AC Chievo Verona	0-5 L	0-4 L
Rovato Vertovese SSD	2-2 D	1-0 W
ASD Calcio Pavonese	2-3 L	1-1 D
ASD Villa D'Alme	1-1 D	0-3 L
ASD Brusaporto	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Calepina FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tritium

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/11	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
18/10	Virtus Verona Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	Club Milano Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
27/09	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/09	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	5	9	D
12/09	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	2	6	L

Real Calepina FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
01/11	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
18/10	Club Milano Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
11/10	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/10	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
27/09	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	1-0	2-3	3	7	L
20/09	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tritium vs Real Calepina FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Calepina FC win (36%). Probabilities: Tritium 35%, draw 29%, Real Calepina FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Tritium vs Real Calepina FC?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Tritium 1.26 · Real Calepina FC 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tritium vs Real Calepina FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.