Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Citta di Varese vs Lentigione

Team pages: Citta di Varese · Lentigione

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Citta di Varese1.21
Lentigione1.53
1X2
28% 28% 43%
Citta di Varese Draw Lentigione
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Citta di Varese 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LLWWWLDLDW
Lentigione 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
WWWLWDWWWL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Citta di Varese 1541 · Lentigione 1541
Citta di VareseDrawLentigione
Our model29%28%44%
Market28%29%43%
Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Citta di VareseLentigione
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.41.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.3 / 0.71.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)33/33/33%57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)1.3 / 3.72.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.3 / 04.1 / 0.1

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Reggina 4400 13012
2 Igea Virtus 4310 13810
3 Sambiase 4310 5210
4 Vibonese 4211 1157
5 Nissa FC 4211 867
6 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 4130 726
7 Milazzo 4202 456
8 Calcio Avola 1949 4202 7106
9 ASD Licata 4121 375
10 Modica 4112 344
11 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 4112 684
12 ASD CastrumFavara 4112 544
13 Città di Gela 4112 453
14 ASD Ragusa 4022 472
15 Vigor Lamezia 4022 492
16 Siracusa 4220 741
17 Enna Calcio 4013 091
18 Trapani 4004 110-5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCitta di VareseLentigione
Cittadella Vis Modena 0-0 D 0-1 L
Pro Sesto 0-2 L 3-2 W
Tropical Coriano 1-1 D 2-1 W
Record vs common 0 W 2 D 1 L 2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lentigione (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Citta di Varese

LLWWWLDLDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/09 Pontedera
Italy Serie D
1-0 3-0 13 W
16/09 Cittadella Vis Modena
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 14 D
12/09 Pro Sesto
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-2 63 L
06/09 Tropical Coriano
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-1 57 D
17/05 Ligorna
Italy Serie D
0-3 3-5 36 L
03/05 Lavagnese
Italy Serie D
– 3-2 –– W
26/04 ACSD Saluzzo
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
19/04 Derthona
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
12/04 Celle Varazze FBC
Italy Serie D
– 0-2 –– L
02/04 Valenzana
Italy Serie D
0-1 1-2 63 L

Lentigione

WWWLWDWWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/09 Cittadella Vis Modena
Italy Serie D
– 0-1 –– L
16/09 Tropical Coriano
Italy Serie D
0-1 2-1 68 W
12/09 USD Castellanzese
Italy Serie D
– 1-0 –– W
06/09 Pro Sesto
Italy Serie D
2-1 3-2 65 W
03/05 A.C.D. Sant'Angelo
Italy Serie D
2-1 2-2 13 D
26/04 CS Trevigliese
Italy Serie D
– 2-1 –– W
19/04 SCD Progresso Calcio
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-2 84 L
12/04 Tuttocuoio
Italy Serie D
1-0 1-0 43 W
02/04 ASD Sasso Marconi
Italy Serie D
0-1 2-1 94 W
29/03 Piacenza
Italy Serie D
2-0 3-1 53 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Citta di Varese vs Lentigione?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lentigione win (43%). Probabilities: Citta di Varese 28%, draw 28%, Lentigione 43%.

How many goals are expected in Citta di Varese vs Lentigione?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Citta di Varese 1.21 · Lentigione 1.53), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Citta di Varese vs Lentigione?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.