Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal

Team pages: Mercadal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas1.89

Mercadal0.68

1X2

66% 22% 12%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Draw Mercadal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDDWW

Mercadal 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1–0 Mercadal (4 last)

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas3-0Mercadal
Mercadal0-2Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas1-0Mercadal
Mercadal1-1Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1586 · Mercadal 1456

	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	Draw	Mercadal
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (rating 1586 vs 1456).
H2H favours Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	Mercadal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.2	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/71/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	2.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +57’	1.36	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1–0 Mercadal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	3-0	Mercadal
20/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Mercadal	0-2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
11/05/19 Spain Tercera Group 11	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1-0	Mercadal
16/12/18 Spain Tercera Group 11	Mercadal	1-1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Platges de Calvia	10	8	0	2	22	8	24
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	10	7	3	0	16	2	24
3	Manacor	10	6	3	1	21	10	21
4	CE Constancia	10	5	4	1	16	6	19
5	UE Porreres	10	6	0	4	15	10	18
6	PE Sant Jordi	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
7	Llosetense	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
8	Formentera	9	4	2	3	13	8	14
9	CD Cardassar	10	4	2	4	18	14	14
10	Santanyi	9	3	5	1	10	6	14
11	Binissalem	9	4	1	4	14	13	13
12	Alcudia	10	4	0	6	13	18	12
13	CE Andratx	10	2	3	5	15	20	9
14	Mercadal	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
15	CE Sineu	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
16	CD Migjorn	10	1	2	7	10	23	5
17	Inter Ibiza	10	1	2	7	6	24	5
18	UD Arenal	10	1	1	8	6	22	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	Mercadal
UD Arenal	2-0 W	1-2 L
Alcudia	3-0 W	0-1 L
CE Constancia	0-0 D	1-3 L
Santanyi	0-0 D	1-1 D
Inter Ibiza	3-0 W	2-0 W
Formentera	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

WWWDWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
07/11	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	3-0	3-0	2	6	W
01/11	CE Constancia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	14	3	D
24/10	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	3-0	9	6	W
04/10	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
26/09	CE Andratx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	CE Sineu Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/09	CD Migjorn Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Platges de Calvia Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Mercadal

DWLDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	PE Sant Jordi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
24/10	UE Porreres Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-5	–	–	L
18/10	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
03/10	CE Constancia Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-3	–	–	L
26/09	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/09	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win (66%). Probabilities: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 66%, draw 22%, Mercadal 12%.

How many goals are expected in Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1.89 · Mercadal 0.68), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.