Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 18/10, 12:30

Prediction: Binissalem vs Formentera

Team pages: Binissalem · Formentera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Binissalem0.94

Formentera1.26

1X2

27% 30% 43%

Binissalem Draw Formentera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Binissalem 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLLLWW

Formentera 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Binissalem 2–3–1 Formentera (6 last)

Binissalem1-1Formentera
Formentera0-1Binissalem
Binissalem1-1Formentera
Formentera0-0Binissalem
Binissalem2-0Formentera
Formentera2-1Binissalem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Binissalem 1486 · Formentera 1527

	Binissalem	Draw	Formentera
Our model	26%	31%	42%
Market	28%	29%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Formentera (rating 1486 vs 1527).
H2H favours Binissalem: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Binissalem	Formentera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.4	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.10

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.70 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +15’	3.25	3.10	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +197’	3.61	3.03	2.01
00:49 +18’	3.64▲	2.92▼	2.05▲
10:32 +34’	3.70▲	2.95▲	2.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Binissalem 2–3–1 Formentera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	1-1 HT 0-0	Formentera
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	0-1	Binissalem
22/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	1-1 HT 1-0	Formentera
10/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	0-0	Binissalem
24/01/21 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	2-0 HT 1-0	Formentera
25/10/20 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	2-1	Binissalem

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
2	Manacor	6	5	0	1	15	7	15
3	Platges de Calvia	7	5	0	2	12	5	15
4	CD Cardassar	6	4	1	1	13	6	13
5	CE Constancia	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
6	Santanyi	6	3	3	0	8	3	12
7	Formentera	6	3	2	1	9	4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
9	Llosetense	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
10	Alcudia	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	UE Porreres	6	3	0	3	7	7	9
12	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
13	Mercadal	6	1	2	3	6	8	5
14	CE Andratx	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
15	CD Migjorn	7	1	1	5	6	15	4
16	UD Arenal	6	1	0	5	5	14	3
17	CE Sineu	7	0	1	6	3	16	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	2	15	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Binissalem	Formentera
CD Cardassar	1-3 L	3-1 W
Manacor	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Formentera (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Binissalem

DLDWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CE Andratx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	CE Sineu Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/09	CD Migjorn Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/09	Platges de Calvia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
12/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	1-3	1-3	8	5	L
05/09	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	CD Son Cladera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
03/05	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Mallorca B Spain Tercera Group 11	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
19/04	Platges de Calvia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Formentera

WLWDDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
27/09	PE Sant Jordi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W
19/09	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
13/09	UE Porreres Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
05/09	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/04	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/04	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Binissalem vs Formentera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Formentera win (43%). Probabilities: Binissalem 27%, draw 30%, Formentera 43%.

How many goals are expected in Binissalem vs Formentera?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Binissalem 0.94 · Formentera 1.26), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Binissalem vs Formentera?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.