Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Binissalem vs CE Constancia

Team pages: Binissalem · CE Constancia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Binissalem0.93

CE Constancia1.3

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Binissalem Draw CE Constancia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Binissalem 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDWW

CE Constancia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Binissalem 1–1–4 CE Constancia (6 last)

Binissalem0-1CE Constancia
CE Constancia3-0Binissalem
Binissalem0-1CE Constancia
CE Constancia1-1Binissalem
CE Constancia2-0Binissalem
Binissalem1-0CE Constancia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Binissalem 1504 · CE Constancia 1566

	Binissalem	Draw	CE Constancia
Our model	25%	31%	44%
Market	26%	29%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CE Constancia (rating 1504 vs 1566).
H2H favours CE Constancia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Binissalem	CE Constancia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	57/43/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.10

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +38’	3.40	3.10	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Binissalem 1–1–4 CE Constancia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	0-1	CE Constancia
18/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	3-0 HT 1-0	Binissalem
08/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	0-1 HT 0-1	CE Constancia
28/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	1-1 HT 1-0	Binissalem
09/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	2-0 HT 0-0	Binissalem
22/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	1-0 HT 0-0	CE Constancia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Platges de Calvia	10	8	0	2	22	8	24
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	10	7	3	0	16	2	24
3	Manacor	10	6	3	1	21	10	21
4	CE Constancia	10	5	4	1	16	6	19
5	UE Porreres	10	6	0	4	15	10	18
6	PE Sant Jordi	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
7	Llosetense	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
8	Formentera	9	4	2	3	13	8	14
9	CD Cardassar	10	4	2	4	18	14	14
10	Santanyi	9	3	5	1	10	6	14
11	Binissalem	9	4	1	4	14	13	13
12	Alcudia	10	4	0	6	13	18	12
13	CE Andratx	10	2	3	5	15	20	9
14	Mercadal	10	2	3	5	10	17	9
15	CE Sineu	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
16	CD Migjorn	10	1	2	7	10	23	5
17	Inter Ibiza	10	1	2	7	6	24	5
18	UD Arenal	10	1	1	8	6	22	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Binissalem	CE Constancia
Santanyi	2-1 W	1-1 D
UD Arenal	3-0 W	3-0 W
CD Cardassar	1-3 L	0-1 L
Manacor	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CE Constancia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Binissalem

WLLLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/10	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W
24/10	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
10/10	CE Andratx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	CE Sineu Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/09	CD Migjorn Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/09	Platges de Calvia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
12/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	1-3	1-3	8	5	L
05/09	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	CD Son Cladera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	3	6	W

CE Constancia

WDLWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
24/10	PE Sant Jordi Spain Tercera Group 11	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
18/10	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
10/10	UE Porreres Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
03/10	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/09	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
20/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Binissalem vs CE Constancia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CE Constancia win (44%). Probabilities: Binissalem 26%, draw 30%, CE Constancia 44%.

How many goals are expected in Binissalem vs CE Constancia?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Binissalem 0.93 · CE Constancia 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Binissalem vs CE Constancia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.