Prediction: USA vs Mexico
- USA1-2Mexico
- Mexico2-0USA
- USA2-0Mexico
- USA3-0Mexico
- USA1-1Mexico
- Mexico0-0USA
| USA | Draw | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mexico (rating 1524 vs 1581).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| USA | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.5 | 3.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · USA 2–2–2 Mexico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/25 CONCACAF Gold Cup | USA | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Mexico |
| 16/10/24 International Match | Mexico | 2-0 HT 1-0 | USA |
| 25/03/24 CONCACAF Nations League | USA | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Mexico |
| 16/06/23 CONCACAF Nations League | USA | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Mexico |
| 20/04/23 International Match | USA | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mexico |
| 25/03/22 North & Central America - World Cup Qualifying | Mexico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | USA |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | USA | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Peru | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Portugal | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Belgium | 2-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Australia | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Mexico (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
USA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Chile International Match |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Peru International Match |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Germany International Match |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Senegal International Match |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/04 | Portugal International Match |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Belgium International Match |
1-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 19/11 | Uruguay International Match |
4-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 15/11 | Paraguay International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Australia International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Ecuador International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Mexico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Peru International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 27/09 | Colombia International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/06 | Serbia International Match |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Australia International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Ghana International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 01/04 | Belgium International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 29/03 | Portugal International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 26/02 | Iceland International Match |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 25/01 | Bolivia International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/01 | Panama International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in USA vs Mexico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a USA win (38%). Probabilities: USA 38%, draw 28%, Mexico 34%.
How many goals are expected in USA vs Mexico?
The model expects 2.79 goals (USA 1.45 · Mexico 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Mexico?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.