Football · International Match · 03/10, 20:00
Prediction: Canada vs Peru
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Canada1.63
Peru0.81
1X2
Canada
Draw
Peru
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Canada
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Peru
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Canada
1–0
Peru
(1 last)
- Peru0-1Canada
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Canada 1524 · Peru 1469
| Canada | Draw | Peru | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canada (rating 1524 vs 1469).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Canada | Peru | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.3 | 2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.7 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Canada 1–0–0 Peru
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/24 Copa America | Peru | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Canada |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Canada
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Chile International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | Rep of Ireland International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 02/06 | Uzbekistan International Match |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Tunisia International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Iceland International Match |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/01 | Guatemala International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/11 | Venezuela International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/11 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/10 | Colombia International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Australia International Match |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
Peru
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Mexico International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | USA International Match |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/06 | Spain International Match |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Haiti International Match |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/03 | Honduras International Match |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Senegal International Match |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/12 | Bolivia International Match |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/11 | Chile International Match |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/11 | Russia International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | Chile International Match |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Canada vs Peru?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Canada win (57%). Probabilities: Canada 57%, draw 24%, Peru 19%.
How many goals are expected in Canada vs Peru?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Canada 1.63 · Peru 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Canada vs Peru?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.