Prediction: USA vs Canada
- Canada2-1USA
- USA1-2Canada
- USA1-1Canada
- Canada0-2USA
- Canada2-0USA
- USA1-1Canada
| USA | Draw | Canada | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Canada: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| USA | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 3.9 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · USA 1–2–3 Canada
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 CONCACAF Nations League | Canada | 2-1 HT 1-1 | USA |
| 07/09/24 International Match | USA | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Canada |
| 10/07/23 CONCACAF Gold Cup | USA | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Canada |
| 19/06/23 CONCACAF Nations League | Canada | 0-2 HT 0-2 | USA |
| 30/01/22 North & Central America - World Cup Qualifying | Canada | 2-0 HT 1-0 | USA |
| 06/09/21 Central America - World Cup Qualifying | USA | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Canada |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | USA | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Peru | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: USA (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
USA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Mexico International Match |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/09 | Chile International Match |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Peru International Match |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Germany International Match |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Senegal International Match |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/04 | Portugal International Match |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Belgium International Match |
1-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 19/11 | Uruguay International Match |
4-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 15/11 | Paraguay International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Australia International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Canada
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Peru International Match |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Chile International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | Rep of Ireland International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 02/06 | Uzbekistan International Match |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Tunisia International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Iceland International Match |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/01 | Guatemala International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/11 | Venezuela International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/11 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/10 | Colombia International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in USA vs Canada?
According to our model, the most likely result is a USA win (48%). Probabilities: USA 48%, draw 27%, Canada 25%.
How many goals are expected in USA vs Canada?
The model expects 2.81 goals (USA 1.67 · Canada 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Canada?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.