Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 18/10, 12:30

Prediction: Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B

Team pages: Aguilas B · UCAM Murcia CF B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Aguilas B1.39

UCAM Murcia CF B1.36

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Aguilas B Draw UCAM Murcia CF B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas B 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDDDDW

UCAM Murcia CF B 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aguilas B 1–2–1 UCAM Murcia CF B (4 last)

Aguilas B2-2UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B1-1Aguilas B
Aguilas B3-0UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B3-2Aguilas B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas B 1552 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1519

	Aguilas B	Draw	UCAM Murcia CF B
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas B	UCAM Murcia CF B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.80 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +8’	2.40	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +148’	2.37	3.07	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas B 1–2–1 UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-2 HT 1-2	UCAM Murcia CF B
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas B
23/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	3-0 HT 1-0	UCAM Murcia CF B
13/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	3-2 HT 2-1	Aguilas B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	14	6	16
2	San Javier CF	6	4	2	0	11	5	14
3	Union Molinense CF	6	3	2	1	13	8	11
4	Atletico Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
5	Alcantarilla FC	6	2	3	1	5	5	9
6	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
7	FC Cartagena B	6	2	2	2	9	10	8
8	Olimpico Totana	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
9	Aguilas B	6	1	5	0	7	5	8
10	UD Los Garres	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
11	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	3	4	8
12	UCAM Murcia CF B	6	2	2	2	13	7	8
13	At. Pulpileno	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
15	Deportivo Maritimo	6	2	0	4	6	11	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
17	CD Algar	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
18	Mazarron	6	0	1	5	6	14	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas B	UCAM Murcia CF B
Mazarron	3-2 W	5-1 W
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	2-1 W	4-0 W
Deportivo Maritimo	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas B

WWWDDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/09	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
20/09	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
13/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
06/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	1	10	W
25/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	11	4	W
19/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	6	2	W

UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	5-1	4	3	W
04/10	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
20/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
05/09	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
26/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
19/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	4-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas B win (37%). Probabilities: Aguilas B 37%, draw 28%, UCAM Murcia CF B 35%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Aguilas B 1.39 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.