Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: FC Cartagena B vs Santomera

Team pages: FC Cartagena B · Santomera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

FC Cartagena B1.35

Santomera1.75

1X2

28% 26% 45%

FC Cartagena B Draw Santomera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cartagena B 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDDWLW

Santomera 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Cartagena B 0–2–2 Santomera (4 last)

Santomera2-1FC Cartagena B
FC Cartagena B4-4Santomera
Santomera2-1FC Cartagena B
FC Cartagena B3-3Santomera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cartagena B 1472 · Santomera 1578

	FC Cartagena B	Draw	Santomera
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santomera (rating 1472 vs 1578).
H2H favours Santomera: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cartagena B	Santomera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.34
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +8’	3.25	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:42 +191’	3.01	3.34	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cartagena B 0–2–2 Santomera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Cartagena B
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	FC Cartagena B	4-4 HT 1-3	Santomera
26/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Santomera	2-1	FC Cartagena B
15/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	FC Cartagena B	3-3 HT 1-2	Santomera

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	14	6	16
2	San Javier CF	6	4	2	0	11	5	14
3	Union Molinense CF	6	3	2	1	13	8	11
4	Atletico Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
5	Alcantarilla FC	6	2	3	1	5	5	9
6	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
7	FC Cartagena B	6	2	2	2	9	10	8
8	Olimpico Totana	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
9	Aguilas B	6	1	5	0	7	5	8
10	UD Los Garres	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
11	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	3	4	8
12	UCAM Murcia CF B	6	2	2	2	13	7	8
13	At. Pulpileno	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
15	Deportivo Maritimo	6	2	0	4	6	11	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
17	CD Algar	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
18	Mazarron	6	0	1	5	6	14	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cartagena B	Santomera
Bullas Deportivo	3-2 W	2-1 W
CD Algar	1-2 L	2-0 W
UD Los Garres	1-0 W	2-2 D
UCAM Murcia CF B	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Santomera (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cartagena B

DDLLLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/10	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
27/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
20/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-2	11	7	D
13/09	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
06/09	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
10/05	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
02/05	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-2	2	10	L
25/04	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
18/04	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D

Santomera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
04/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
27/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
13/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
05/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
10/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
02/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	9	10	W
25/04	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
19/04	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cartagena B vs Santomera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Santomera win (45%). Probabilities: FC Cartagena B 28%, draw 26%, Santomera 45%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cartagena B vs Santomera?

The model expects 3.1 goals (FC Cartagena B 1.35 · Santomera 1.75), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cartagena B vs Santomera?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.