Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 18/10, 11:30

Prediction: At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo

Team pages: At. Pulpileno · Deportivo Maritimo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

At. Pulpileno1.64

Deportivo Maritimo0.72

1X2

59% 26% 16%

At. Pulpileno Draw Deportivo Maritimo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

At. Pulpileno 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDDWLL

Deportivo Maritimo 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

At. Pulpileno 2–1–1 Deportivo Maritimo (4 last)

At. Pulpileno1-0Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo2-1At. Pulpileno
At. Pulpileno0-0Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo0-3At. Pulpileno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · At. Pulpileno 1476 · Deportivo Maritimo 1479

	At. Pulpileno	Draw	Deportivo Maritimo
Our model	58%	27%	15%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours At. Pulpileno: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	At. Pulpileno	Deportivo Maritimo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.60

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.69 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +7’	1.50	3.60	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +132’	1.69	3.33	4.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Pulpileno 2–1–1 Deportivo Maritimo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maritimo
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	2-1 HT 1-1	At. Pulpileno
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maritimo
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	0-3 HT 0-0	At. Pulpileno

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	14	6	16
2	San Javier CF	6	4	2	0	11	5	14
3	Union Molinense CF	6	3	2	1	13	8	11
4	Atletico Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
5	Alcantarilla FC	6	2	3	1	5	5	9
6	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
7	FC Cartagena B	6	2	2	2	9	10	8
8	Olimpico Totana	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
9	Aguilas B	6	1	5	0	7	5	8
10	UD Los Garres	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
11	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	3	4	8
12	UCAM Murcia CF B	6	2	2	2	13	7	8
13	At. Pulpileno	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
15	Deportivo Maritimo	6	2	0	4	6	11	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
17	CD Algar	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
18	Mazarron	6	0	1	5	6	14	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	At. Pulpileno	Deportivo Maritimo
Santomera	2-3 L	0-3 L
Bullas Deportivo	0-0 D	4-1 W
CD Algar	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: At. Pulpileno (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Pulpileno

DWDLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	2	11	L
04/10	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
27/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
20/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-0	4	3	D
05/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
10/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
03/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
26/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
19/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Deportivo Maritimo

LLWWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	4-0	4-1	2	5	W
10/10	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
27/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	0-4	1	4	L
06/09	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/05	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
19/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a At. Pulpileno win (59%). Probabilities: At. Pulpileno 59%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maritimo 16%.

How many goals are expected in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model expects 2.36 goals (At. Pulpileno 1.64 · Deportivo Maritimo 0.72), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.