Football · Colombia Liga Femenina · 12/08, 00:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Fortaleza CEIF (W)
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe (W) · Fortaleza CEIF (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Independiente Santa Fe (W)2.18
Fortaleza CEIF (W)0.42
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Draw
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
6–0
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
(6 last)
- Fortaleza CEIF (W)1-6Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- Fortaleza CEIF (W)0-1Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- Fortaleza CEIF (W)2-3Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- Independiente Santa Fe (W)2-0Fortaleza CEIF (W)
- Independiente Santa Fe (W)2-0Fortaleza CEIF (W)
- Fortaleza CEIF (W)0-5Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 1543 · Fortaleza CEIF (W) 1473
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Draw | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| Market | 79% | 15% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (W) (rating 1543 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 0.8 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 6–0–0 Fortaleza CEIF (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 1-6 HT 1-3 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 10/03/22 Colombia Liga Femenina | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 12/08/21 Colombia Liga Femenina | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 17/07/21 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) |
| 12/11/20 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) |
| 29/10/20 Colombia Liga Femenina | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
Standings · Colombia Liga Femenina
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional (W) | 16 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 9 | 39 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | Millonarios (W) | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 35 |
| 4 | America de Cali (W) | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 32 |
| 5 | Internacional de Bogota (W) | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 29 |
| 6 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 11 | 25 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin (W) | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| 9 | Orsomarso (W) | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 16 |
| 11 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 14 |
| 12 | Llaneros (W) | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior (W) | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | CD Real Santander (W) | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 22 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas (W) | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 25 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Fortaleza CEIF (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Millonarios (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Independiente Medellin (W) | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Junior (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Pasto (W) | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Internacional de Bogota (W) | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| America de Cali (W) | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | CD Real Santander (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 28/05 | Llaneros (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/04 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 28/03 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 27/07 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Fortaleza CEIF (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe (W) 78%, draw 16%, Fortaleza CEIF (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Fortaleza CEIF (W)?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Independiente Santa Fe (W) 2.18 · Fortaleza CEIF (W) 0.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Fortaleza CEIF (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.