Football · Spain Tercera Group 10 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: UD Tomares vs CD Egabrense

Team pages: UD Tomares

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

UD Tomares1.55

CD Egabrense1.02

1X2

49% 28% 24%

UD Tomares Draw CD Egabrense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Tomares 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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CD Egabrense 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Tomares 1522 · CD Egabrense 1499

	UD Tomares	Draw	CD Egabrense
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Tomares	CD Egabrense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.8	2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.6	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +4’	1.85	3.30	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 10

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dos Hermanas CF 1971	10	7	2	1	24	10	23
2	Racing Portuense	10	6	2	2	19	10	20
3	CD San Roque de Lepe	10	6	2	2	15	9	20
4	Xerez Deportivo FC	10	5	3	2	14	12	18
5	UD Tomares	10	5	2	3	11	9	17
6	Real Betis C	10	5	2	3	23	18	17
7	CD Utrera	9	5	1	3	14	15	16
8	CD Egabrense	10	4	2	4	18	16	14
9	Pozoblanco	10	3	4	3	15	13	13
10	RB Linense	10	3	3	4	13	14	12
11	AD Ceuta FC B	10	3	3	4	13	15	12
12	Conil CF	10	3	2	5	9	15	11
13	Cadiz Mirandilla	10	1	6	3	6	7	9
14	Chiclana	10	2	3	5	11	17	9
15	Sevilla C	10	1	5	4	12	19	8
16	Atletico Onubense	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
17	Bollullos CF	10	1	4	5	9	13	7
17	Cordoba B	9	1	4	4	9	13	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Tomares	CD Egabrense
CD San Roque de Lepe	1-2 L	0-1 L
Xerez Deportivo FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Real Betis C	1-0 W	2-3 L
Bollullos CF	1-0 W	2-2 D
Sevilla C	2-1 W	0-0 D
Racing Portuense	1-1 D	1-3 L
AD Ceuta FC B	1-0 W	3-1 W
Cordoba B	2-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: UD Tomares (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Tomares

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD San Roque de Lepe Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/11	Xerez Deportivo FC Spain Tercera Group 10	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
25/10	Real Betis C Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
18/10	Bollullos CF Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	1-0	2	11	W
10/10	Sevilla C Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
04/10	Racing Portuense Spain Tercera Group 10	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/09	AD Ceuta FC B Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Cordoba B Spain Tercera Group 10	2-0	2-0	7	7	W
13/09	RB Linense Spain Tercera Group 10	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Cadiz Mirandilla Spain Tercera Group 10	1-1	2-2	2	6	D

CD Egabrense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Chiclana Spain Tercera Group 10	–	3-1	–	–	W
01/11	Atletico Onubense Spain Tercera Group 10	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/10	CD San Roque de Lepe Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
18/10	Xerez Deportivo FC Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	Real Betis C Spain Tercera Group 10	1-1	2-3	10	6	L
04/10	Bollullos CF Spain Tercera Group 10	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	Sevilla C Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/09	Racing Portuense Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	AD Ceuta FC B Spain Tercera Group 10	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Cordoba B Spain Tercera Group 10	–	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Tomares vs CD Egabrense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Tomares win (49%). Probabilities: UD Tomares 49%, draw 28%, CD Egabrense 24%.

How many goals are expected in UD Tomares vs CD Egabrense?

The model expects 2.57 goals (UD Tomares 1.55 · CD Egabrense 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Tomares vs CD Egabrense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.