Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Las Palmas C vs SD Villaverde Norte

Team pages: Las Palmas C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Las Palmas C2.56

SD Villaverde Norte0.94

1X2

72% 17% 11%

Las Palmas C Draw SD Villaverde Norte

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Palmas C 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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SD Villaverde Norte 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Palmas C 1528 · SD Villaverde Norte 1427

	Las Palmas C	Draw	SD Villaverde Norte
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	72%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Palmas C (rating 1528 vs 1427).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Palmas C	SD Villaverde Norte
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	0.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +18’	1.25	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	10	8	1	1	25	7	25
2	Panaderia Pulido	10	7	2	1	31	14	23
3	CD Arcangel San Miguel	10	7	1	2	21	9	22
4	Real Union de Tenerife	10	6	2	2	15	9	20
5	Las Palmas C	10	4	4	2	20	12	16
6	Union Sur Yaiza	10	5	1	4	14	11	16
7	CD Marino	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
8	Tenerife C	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
9	Llanos Aridane	9	4	1	4	12	9	13
10	Estrella CF	10	4	1	5	12	15	13
11	Mensajero	10	3	4	3	12	17	13
12	Lanzarote	10	2	6	2	10	12	12
13	CF San Bartolome	10	2	4	4	13	16	10
14	Villa Sta Brigida	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
15	UD Anaza	10	2	3	5	10	18	9
16	SD Villaverde Norte	10	1	2	7	7	24	5
17	UD Playas de Sotavento	10	0	4	6	7	25	4
18	CD Laguna	10	0	3	7	10	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Palmas C	SD Villaverde Norte
CD Arcangel San Miguel	2-3 L	0-5 L
UD Anaza	3-0 W	1-1 D
Tenerife C	1-1 D	1-4 L
Mensajero	2-2 D	1-2 L
Villa Sta Brigida	1-1 D	0-2 L
Lanzarote	1-2 L	1-1 D
Estrella CF	1-1 D	1-3 L
Union Sur Yaiza	4-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Las Palmas C (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Palmas C

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	2-3	2	7	L
31/10	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	3-0	10	5	W
24/10	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
21/10	CD Laguna Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
17/10	Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
09/10	Villa Sta Brigida Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
03/10	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
25/09	Estrella CF Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
19/09	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	2-1	4-2	9	4	W
12/09	UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-0	–	–	W

SD Villaverde Norte

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	CF San Bartolome Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12	0-2	0-5	0	3	L
24/10	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	0-2	0-5	2	2	L
21/10	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-4	–	–	L
03/10	Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Villa Sta Brigida Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/09	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Estrella CF Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Palmas C vs SD Villaverde Norte?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Palmas C win (72%). Probabilities: Las Palmas C 72%, draw 17%, SD Villaverde Norte 11%.

How many goals are expected in Las Palmas C vs SD Villaverde Norte?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Las Palmas C 2.56 · SD Villaverde Norte 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Palmas C vs SD Villaverde Norte?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.