Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 15/08, 14:00

Prediction: FC Lahti vs KuPS Kuopio

Team pages: FC Lahti · KuPS Kuopio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

FC Lahti1.12

KuPS Kuopio1.12

1X2

36% 29% 36%

FC Lahti Draw KuPS Kuopio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lahti 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWWLWD

KuPS Kuopio 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWDD

Head-to-head

FC Lahti 0–6 KuPS Kuopio (6 last)

KuPS Kuopio2-1FC Lahti
KuPS Kuopio1-0FC Lahti
FC Lahti0-1KuPS Kuopio
FC Lahti0-2KuPS Kuopio
FC Lahti3-4KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio2-0FC Lahti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lahti 1513 · KuPS Kuopio 1547

	FC Lahti	Draw	KuPS Kuopio
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	37%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lahti	KuPS Kuopio
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.51
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +1’	2.50	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:22	2.51	3.65	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lahti 0–0–6 KuPS Kuopio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Lahti
21/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
27/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	0-1 HT 0-1	KuPS Kuopio
16/03/24 Finland Cup	FC Lahti	0-2 HT 0-2	KuPS Kuopio
01/07/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	3-4 HT 1-2	KuPS Kuopio
20/05/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Lahti

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	19	11	7	1	34	17	40
2	FC Inter	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
3	HJK Helsinki	19	9	4	6	29	23	31
4	VPS Vaasa	19	8	6	5	27	18	30
5	AC Oulu	19	9	3	7	22	22	30
6	IF Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	29
7	FC Lahti	19	7	5	7	22	16	26
8	TPS	19	7	5	7	24	21	26
9	FC Ilves	19	7	4	8	31	31	25
10	SJK	19	4	6	9	24	29	18
11	FF Jaro	19	3	6	10	18	38	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	19	0	5	14	9	41	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lahti	KuPS Kuopio
HJK Helsinki	2-0 W	4-0 W
IF Gnistan	1-0 W	1-0 W
TPS	0-0 D	1-1 D
SJK	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Lahti

LLDDWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
26/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
20/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
11/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
04/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
13/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L

KuPS Kuopio

WWLWLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
06/08	CS U Craiova UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/07	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
25/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/07	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
18/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
14/07	Vardar Skopje UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	12	8	L
07/07	Vardar Skopje UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
27/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lahti vs KuPS Kuopio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lahti win (36%). Probabilities: FC Lahti 36%, draw 29%, KuPS Kuopio 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lahti vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model expects 2.24 goals (FC Lahti 1.12 · KuPS Kuopio 1.12), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lahti vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.