Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: CD Laguna vs Villa Sta Brigida

Team pages: Villa Sta Brigida

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

CD Laguna1.31

Villa Sta Brigida1.22

1X2

38% 28% 34%

CD Laguna Draw Villa Sta Brigida

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Laguna 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Villa Sta Brigida 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Laguna 1411 · Villa Sta Brigida 1476

	CD Laguna	Draw	Villa Sta Brigida
Our model	37%	29%	33%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa Sta Brigida (rating 1411 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Laguna	Villa Sta Brigida
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.5 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +23’	2.35	3.25	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	10	8	1	1	25	7	25
2	Panaderia Pulido	10	7	2	1	31	14	23
3	CD Arcangel San Miguel	10	7	1	2	21	9	22
4	Real Union de Tenerife	10	6	2	2	15	9	20
5	Las Palmas C	10	4	4	2	20	12	16
6	Union Sur Yaiza	10	5	1	4	14	11	16
7	CD Marino	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
8	Tenerife C	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
9	Llanos Aridane	9	4	1	4	12	9	13
10	Estrella CF	10	4	1	5	12	15	13
11	Mensajero	10	3	4	3	12	17	13
12	Lanzarote	10	2	6	2	10	12	12
13	CF San Bartolome	10	2	4	4	13	16	10
14	Villa Sta Brigida	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
15	UD Anaza	10	2	3	5	10	18	9
16	SD Villaverde Norte	10	1	2	7	7	24	5
17	UD Playas de Sotavento	10	0	4	6	7	25	4
18	CD Laguna	10	0	3	7	10	24	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Laguna	Villa Sta Brigida
Las Palmas C	0-3 L	1-1 D
Real Union de Tenerife	0-1 L	1-2 L
CD Marino	2-2 D	1-1 D
Llanos Aridane	1-2 L	1-0 W
UD San Fernando	0-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Villa Sta Brigida (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Laguna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/10	Estrella CF Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-3	–	–	L
24/10	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-3	–	–	L
21/10	Las Palmas C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
17/10	UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12	–	3-4	–	–	L
02/10	Real Union de Tenerife Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
26/09	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	2-1	2-2	1	10	D
19/09	Llanos Aridane Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	0-3	9	8	L

Villa Sta Brigida

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Union de Tenerife Spain Tercera Group 12	0-2	1-2	2	8	L
01/11	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
24/10	Llanos Aridane Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/10	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
17/10	UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-4	–	–	L
09/10	Las Palmas C Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/10	CF San Bartolome Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	SD Villaverde Norte Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/09	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-3	0	5	L
12/09	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-0	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Laguna vs Villa Sta Brigida?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Laguna win (38%). Probabilities: CD Laguna 38%, draw 28%, Villa Sta Brigida 34%.

How many goals are expected in CD Laguna vs Villa Sta Brigida?

The model expects 2.53 goals (CD Laguna 1.31 · Villa Sta Brigida 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Laguna vs Villa Sta Brigida?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.