Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: Real Union de Tenerife vs Mensajero

Team pages: Real Union de Tenerife · Mensajero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Real Union de Tenerife1.31

Mensajero1.03

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Real Union de Tenerife Draw Mensajero

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Union de Tenerife 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWDW

Mensajero 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Real Union de Tenerife 0–2 Mensajero (2 last)

Real Union de Tenerife0-1Mensajero
Mensajero2-0Real Union de Tenerife

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Union de Tenerife 1540 · Mensajero 1504

	Real Union de Tenerife	Draw	Mensajero
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mensajero: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Union de Tenerife	Mensajero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/43/0%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +24’	1.91	3.25	3.50
20:06 +1’	2.10▲	3.20▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +8’	2.03	3.16	3.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Union de Tenerife 0–0–2 Mensajero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 12	Real Union de Tenerife	0-1 HT 0-0	Mensajero
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 12	Mensajero	2-0	Real Union de Tenerife

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	10	8	1	1	25	7	25
2	Panaderia Pulido	10	7	2	1	31	14	23
3	CD Arcangel San Miguel	10	7	1	2	21	9	22
4	Real Union de Tenerife	10	6	2	2	15	9	20
5	Las Palmas C	10	4	4	2	20	12	16
6	Union Sur Yaiza	10	5	1	4	14	11	16
7	CD Marino	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
8	Tenerife C	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
9	Llanos Aridane	9	4	1	4	12	9	13
10	Estrella CF	10	4	1	5	12	15	13
11	Mensajero	10	3	4	3	12	17	13
12	Lanzarote	10	2	6	2	10	12	12
13	CF San Bartolome	10	2	4	4	13	16	10
14	Villa Sta Brigida	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
15	UD Anaza	10	2	3	5	10	18	9
16	SD Villaverde Norte	10	1	2	7	7	24	5
17	UD Playas de Sotavento	10	0	4	6	7	25	4
18	CD Laguna	10	0	3	7	10	24	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Union de Tenerife	Mensajero
UD San Fernando	2-3 L	2-2 D
Panaderia Pulido	2-0 W	0-5 L
CD Marino	1-3 L	1-1 D
Llanos Aridane	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Union de Tenerife

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Villa Sta Brigida Spain Tercera Group 12	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
31/10	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
24/10	Estrella CF Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/10	UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
10/10	UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12	–	3-0	–	–	W
02/10	CD Laguna Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
26/09	Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
18/09	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-3	5	6	L
12/09	Llanos Aridane Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-0	6	6	W

Mensajero

WLWWDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Llanos Aridane Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-3	–	–	L
25/10	UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-2	–	–	D
21/10	Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	0-5	7	2	L
17/10	Las Palmas C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
11/10	CF San Bartolome Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	SD Villaverde Norte Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
13/09	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Union de Tenerife vs Mensajero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Union de Tenerife win (42%). Probabilities: Real Union de Tenerife 42%, draw 29%, Mensajero 29%.

How many goals are expected in Real Union de Tenerife vs Mensajero?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Real Union de Tenerife 1.31 · Mensajero 1.03), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Union de Tenerife vs Mensajero?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.